Two-Tone Blue Dudes: Wide Receiver Methodology

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We are moving at a brisk pace towards the NFL Draft, and that means it’s time to take a deeper look into who is a realistic prospect for the Tennessee Titans. I know people are clamoring for the Anthony Richardson piece, and that will come in due time, but first I wanted to spend the week diving into the wide receiver position.

I’ve talked briefly about the guys that could be options, but that was more of a surface level kind of view. Now, it’s time for the good stuff. The deep dive.

You know me, I loved a good spreadsheet. I have some finishing touches to put on it, but soon you are going to have access to a pretty comprehensive spreadsheet containing even more data about the Titans draft history, Ran’s draft history with the Rams and 49ers, and what prospects best fit what the data tells us.

I used this method similarly last year, eliminating several WRs from the Titans options list, and when it was all said and done, the best first round prospect fit for the Titans was Treylon Burks. Hey, guess what, they drafted Burks:

Football & Other F Words @FWordsPod

We have a winner, Erik Ezukanma hit almost every single average trait listed. Physical Traits, more athletic: Jalen Tolbert/Kevin Austin Closest Round 1 Prospect: Treylon Burks Poor Athletic Traits, everything else: David Bell No Athletic Traits, everything else: Romeo Doubs

Bobby Jaffe @JaFFe_TaFFe

@FWordsPod Has to be Christian Watson or Erik Ezukanma!

This year will be a little different than last year. I have more metrics, some unknowns, and a very weird wide receiver class to look at. So, before I get into the prospects this week, I wanted to dive into the methodology I will be using:

• The Physical Traits

• The Athletic Traits

• The Advanced Metrics

• The On-The-Field Metrics

How to View Ran’s History

While this is Ran Carthon’s first draft with the title of General Manager, this is not the first time he’s been involved in a draft. Is he making every decision? No. Is he involved in the decision making process? Yes.

We don’t know the degree of involvement but we do know he was heavily involved in the later rounds for the 49ers. John Lynch became General Manager of the 49ers in 2017, and hired Carthon that same year. So, for Carthon we are going to use data points from players drafted from 2017-2022 by the 49ers.

Before 2017, he was with the Les Snead Rams from 2012-2016. Again, he was more on the pro side of things, and we have zero clue on his draft involvement, but he has been with Snead since their days together at Atlanta, so there will be some influence in what he looks for in a player. So, we are using Sneads entire draft history as a GM with the Rams.

The reason we are using all rounds, and all players drafted from these time frame is because we can gain insight into the tendencies he learned or picked up during his employment.

The Physical Build

Teams definitely have a tendency when it comes to drafting wide receivers of a certain physical build. The Titans drafted eight wide receivers and six of them were over taller than 6 feet and were over 200-lbs.

That guy, Jon Robinson, is obviously gone, but you have to think that is what Mike Vrabel likes too. Big, physical wide receivers. However, what has Ran Carthon’s experience taught him?

3 of 8 wide receivers drafted with the 49ers were over 6 feet tall, 4 of 8 were over 200-lbs. 7 of 12 with the Rams meet the heigh requirement, while 6 of 12 meet or exceed the 200-lb mark.

Something to keep in mind with these physical attributes is that Tutu Atwell (5’8”/149) and Tavon Austin (5’8”/174) are both included in this and will likely bring the average down somewhat.

For those keeping track at home: 57.14% of wide receivers drafted were over 6-feet tall and the same for being at 200-lbs or heavier.

So, that’s a good indicator of what the Titans will be looking for in this draft in terms of height and weight. In fact, the average height and weight of wide receivers drafted by the Titans, 49ers, and Rams are the following: 72.7” and 201.4 lbs.

What about other attributes like arm length, hand size, and wingspan? The average arm length/hand size/wingspan for the Elite NFL WRs are 32.03/9.48/76.91. So, this is the baseline we will use to figure out how many wide receivers drafted by these teams actually fit that.

These reads Titans/49ers/Rams:

• Arm Length: 6/3/6

• Hand Size: 3/5/5

• Wingspan: 6/3/5

• All Three: 3/3/3

Kind of all over the map, and I couldn’t find wingspan measurements for two of the wide receivers drafted by the Rams back in the day. You could glean from this that arm length and wingspan are more important to the teams than hand size, but thats about it. They’re all viewed pretty close to the same.

The average arm length, hand size and wingspan of wide receivers drafted by the Titans, 49ers, and Rams are the following: 31.96”, 9.322”, and 76.290”. All fall a tad bit short to the elite wide receivers’ averages in the NFL.

The Athletic Traits