Titans Schedule: Analyzing Weeks 1-3

Taking a different and more informative approach to analyzing the Tennessee Titans Schedule.

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The Tennessee Titans finally have their 2023 season mapped out and while I am not a big fan of the spectacle the NFL has made the schedule release, I do know that you can glean how the season may end up for your team.

I wanted to take a different approach to looking at the schedule. Typically, people do a win/loss prediction and provide very little analysis but I am going to do it a little bit different. I am going to do roughly 3 games per article and talk about those games in two key perspectives:

1. Why the Titans will win

2. Why the Titans will lose

Then I am going to give my final verdict on the game. Along the way I will talk about key additions, losses, and facts about the opponent or Titans. I want to try to be as informative as possible and provide a unique perspective other articles of this ilk may lack.

Week 1: at New Orleans Saints

Key Additions: Derek Carr, Foster Moreau, Jamaal Williams
Key Losses: David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport

Stats of the Game: Derek Carr is 0-2 versus a Mike Vrabel coached Titans team. In 2022, Carr had 8 of 15 games where he posted below a 60% completion percentage. The last four games before getting benched his highest completion percentage was 55%.

Key Matchup to Exploit: Trevor Penning. Penning is currently in his second season and he will be the matchup for the Titans defense to exploit right off the bat. Penning is currently their starter at left tackle and has only played a total of 124 snaps and only 33 of those were pass blocking. He only has one start under his belt. The Titans should crash that side constantly and shift pressure away from Ryan Ramczyk on the right side.

• Derek Carr Kept Clean: 65.3% | 7.3 YPA

• Derek Carr Under Pressure: 50.9% cmp | 6.5 YPA

Scariest Matchup for the Titans: Chris Olave versus the Titans defensive backs. Right now, we have no clue how this defensive backfield is truly gonna gel and develop under Chris Harris, but it should look better. However, Olave seems like a matchup nightmare based on what we know about this squad from last year. Even though Sean Murphy-Bunting has been added he didn’t play in any of the games versus the former division rival the Saints in 2022.

The addition of Arden key and a healthy Harold Landry, should help alleviate some of the pressure on the cornerbacks but this matchup is the one to watch that favors the Saints.

Saints’ Summer Storyline to Watch: What happens with Alvin Kamara? His incident in Las Vegas where he was involved in a beating of a man, is still lingering over the Commish’s desk awaiting a form of punishment. The Grand Jury indicted Kamara in the beating and did so rather quickly. If the league or Saints punish Kamara over the summer he will likely be suspended for this game. The Saints drafted Kendre Miller and signed Jamaal Williams, but the Titans stout and steady run defense shouldn’t have any match up nightmares out of the backfield like they would with Kamara.

Why the Titans Will Win: The Titans will win because the Saints have a new quarterback and while there will be some familiarity with the system the chemistry between the offensive players will be lacking at the start of the season. We all saw it when Tom Brady joined up with the Tampa Bay Bucs and it took a while for that offense to start clicking. Tom Brady and the Bucs WRs are way better than what the Saints have.

Also, the Titans defense will be at its healthiest in week one. Key additions both on the staff and on the field will make things hell for a lackluster left tackle and the chemistry of the team. This will definitely be a Vrabel like game where the Titans lean heavily on the defense and keep Carr off the field by focusing in on the run game.

The Saints Defense in 2022 had the 12th highest rushing success rate allowed and the 14th highest rush EPA allowed. They lost two of their top five run defenders in Kaden Eliss and Marcus Davenport, and all of their additions are below average run defenders.

Why the Titans Will Lose: While he is 0-2 versus the Mike Vrabel Titans, Carr is 3-2 versus the Titans in his career and 5-4 on opening weekend. The Titans will lose because the Saints will have schemed appropriately to stop Henry and the rest of the offensive cannot keep up with Olave who will go off for 100+ yards and then Foster Moreau will be a safety blanket eating up chunk yardage underneath. This may be the weekly reason why the Titans lose: they just can’t score enough.

While the Saints have a pretty bad run defense, their pass defense in 2022 was the 8th best in EPA allowed and 2nd best in Success Rate allowed on dropbacks. So, if the Saints are able to successfully slow down or even stop Derrick Henry it will be a bad day for a Titans offense that is adjusting to several new players and a new scheme.

Basically, this is likely a much lower scoring game than anyone wants, but Vrabel’s defense can’t pull off any last minute heroics.

Final Verdict: I am picking the Titans in this one. The Titans defense is largely the same players on the field as the last two seasons and will have something to prove week one. They will be able to generate pressure on the left side versus Trevor Penning and causing Carr to panic all day. The narrative from this game will be about how Carr is overpaid and nothing about the Titans defense. The Titans win 21-17

Week 2: vs the Chargers