Titans BYE the Numbers: Part 2

Get it? Titans By the Numbers but with BYE instead of BY cause they're on Bye?

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In part two of this series, I am going to be talking about three things:

1. The RB Situation (Free)

2. The Ryan Tannehill Situation (Paid)

3. The Pass Catching Situation (Paid)

The RB Situation

I think the talk surrounding the usage of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears, is focused on the wrong thing. I think people are overly concerned with their snap counts and not focused on the real issue. The real issue is what is Tim Kelly doing with them when they are on the field. Not how often they find themselves on the field.

Overall, I have liked Kelly’s performance as offensive coordinator. He is clearly trying to modernize this stale approach, but he just doesn’t have the personnel to do it. In London, I thought he had his worst game because he let something get out of control that was completely in his control: giving the ball to the running backs.

There were 55 offensive snaps for the Titans versus the Ravens. Spears was in for 31 of 55 and Henry was on the field for 29 of 55. Here is how their touches worked out:

• Henry: 14 touches on 29 opportunities.

• Spears: 5 touches on 31 opportunities.

This to me is totally unacceptable, specifically the Spears situation, but both are egregious in their own way. Kelly must recognize and correct this better during a game. He just needs to. This criminal activity goes just beyond the data above. Let’s first take a look at the Titans play-calling splits.

This was a game, much like the Saints game, where the Titans should’ve leaned on the run game more. Sure, before the long run of 63-yards, Henry was only averaging 3.09 yards per carry, but seven of his twelve carries came in the first half. For those counting at home he only got 5 carries in the second half including his 63-yard run.

• First Quarter, Drive 1: 3 carries for 4 yards

• First Quarter/Second Quarter, Drive 2: 1 carry for 2 yards, 1 carry for no gain (penalty/no play)

• Second Quarter, Drive 3: 1 carry for 6 yards

• Second Quarter, Drive 4: 1 carry for 1 yard

• Third Quarter, Drive 6: 2 carries for 68 yards

• Third Quarter, Drive 7: 1 carry for 15 yards, Touchdown

• Third Quarter, Drive 8: 1 carry for no gain

• Fourth Quarter, Drive 9: 2 carries, for 1 yard

Not entirely a pretty game form Henry, but the game was typically close enough to get something going from him on the ground. We also know that Henry gets better as the game goes on and gets in a groove. This doesn’t mean he has to be on the field 90% of the time, but it does mean that when he is on the field use him to your advantage, especially down the stretch.

However, the Spears usage is more egregious and more puzzling. Three of his four carries came on runs up the gut. This is not the best use of Spears at all. He is a guy who needs to be out in space. He is averaging 6.1 yards per carry when going outside of the TEon either side of the formation. For what it is worth, running to the left side is working again for this team, specifically for Spears who is averaging 6 yards per carry towards the left versus 4 yards per carry going anywhere towards the right.

So, it’s perplexing that not only did they refuse to find ways to give him the ball on 31 opportunities to do so, but they misused him by not getting him out in space. It is maddening to have spent a week showcasing all the good Spears has done, but then for them to turn around that week and not use him.

On his 31 carries, Spears is averaging 0.13 expected points added and a 67.7% success rate. On Henry’s 98 carries he’s averaging -0.11 expected points added and 60.2% success rate. This is not a “Less Henry is better” situation, this is a when Spears is on the field, find a way to give him the ball. He is a playmaker.

In fact, even if it is in the passing game, both running backs have fared very well. Henry, when targeted, is averaging 0.31 EPA and 53.8% success rate. Spears is averaging 0.15 EPA and 50% success rate when targeted.

There is a place for both running backs to have a good number of touches, and for this team right now, this is the best path to success. Whether it is via screens or carries, both Henry and Spears need the ball in their hands more often than not.

The Ryan Tannehill Situation