Time to Move On: Derrick Henry

Why now is the perfect time for the Tennessee Titans to trade Derrick Henry

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The Titans have had a history of moving on from star players, then subsequently receiving the ire of fans who never wanted their favorite players to leave.

Jevon Kearse in 2004, Samari Rolle in 2005, Steve McNair in 2006, Chris Johnson in 2014, the list goes on.

All of these players built immense connections with fans, letting their play do the talking for them and almost reaching new heights with this franchise due to their outstanding excellence between the white lines.

We’re now in the year 2023 — where Twitter is about as stable as your grandfather’s old rickety rocking chair and most of us can barely breathe with the economy wringing our necks — and a new potential cornerstone player could be added to the unfortunate list of major Titans roster casualties.

Derrick Henry has developed into a star over his years in Tennessee.

From second round hopeful, to intriguing young talent, to an almost trade piece, to a resurgent story saved for the history books, and finally to a star the entire league has come to fear, Henry’s career has been nothing short of an old rollercoaster that appears ready to give out at any second, but has remained steady despite the ongoing turbulence.

He’s carried this team at times, often putting on his Superman cape and doing the damn deed himself. He’s even had a playoff run that’ll forever be known, which is something that even some of the most satisfied players can’t say they’ve done.

But despite all of that, Henry’s future has been swirling in the rumor mill for the past few months, as the Titans have been exploring ways to cheapen their books, while also trying to see if Henry is even worth keeping on this team.

You see, the NFL has a certain evil agenda against running backs and the overall longevity. The agenda has spread so wide, that teams across the league have taken part in the heinous act of equating running backs to something more like an ant that can be easily squashed on.

This is a joke by the way, but the notion actually still stands here.

This movement has now left Henry in a pretty uncomfortable space, as he feels he’s ready to rock and roll, while the Titans might not feel comfortable depending on a near 30 year old back — backs who’ve historically declined around that age — to lead the way once again offensively.

This significant dilemma has caused some to wonder if the Titans might truly move on from their homegrown star, me included.

It makes sense to do so, since the age, historical factors, and money all combine to make one giant clusterf*ck of a mess when it comes to Henry’s future.

But should the Titans do it? Should they move on from the most dominant player at the position over the last 3 seasons and some change?

Well, some of you might not like my answer, but I think they should. And I’ll tell you why, that’s if I can survive the amount of rocks that are being thrown at me from the glorious audience.

Old Running Backs Stink

As I’ve mentioned before, Henry is near the age of 30 — he’ll officially turn 30 years old next January — a number that is pretty much a signal of death for star running backs hoping to contribute when they enter what the NFL considers elderly age.

Why?

Well, I assume you all know this, but if you don’t, I’ll briefly explain. Running backs generally lose effectiveness once they hit the ripe age of 30 and above. The previous toll on their bodies usually wears their athleticism down, which makes them expendable at the same time.

Here’s some context.

The most yards a running back over 30 has rushed for in a season is 1,697 yards, accomplished by the great Curtis Martin. The problem? He accomplished this feat in 2004, when the running game was more of a priority than it is today.

Want another fact that’ll bring you even more despair? Well, if you said no, that’s too bad. Because the next highest 14 rushing totals in a season for a running back over 30, all came before 2014 (!!).

In fact, only 3 of the highest rushing totals for this category came from 2 lone players, the ageless Frank Gore (2014, 2016) and Adrian Peterson (2018).

If you’re still confused after looking at this information, I’ll spell it out for you. No running back over 30 has put up significant rushing yardage numbers since 33 year old Adrian Peterson. Do you know how crazy, yet not crazy that is?

Think about all the 30 year old running backs that have made a name for themselves, put up ridiculous numbers on the ground, hit the age of 30, and have completely fallen into the pitch black abyss. It’s crazy when you think about it right?

That isn’t to say Henry is facing the same future, because let’s face it, Henry is a bonafide anomaly when it comes to the running back position. Every year, pencil pushers and nerds who degrade their eyesight staring at computers all day, swear up and down that Henry is bound for a significant down season.

At least in comparison to his usual dominance.

And year after year, Henry defies modern logic by putting up elite numbers while not sacrificing his efficiency. Which is still baffling, considering just how pitiful the offensive situation has been around him over the last two seasons, and the worrying foot injury he suffered in 2021.

But even with all that said, you still have to consider the history, and how scarily accurate it has been for one of the game’s most physical positions.

However, that isn’t the only factor worth worrying about in this specific case, because with Henry’s contractual situation looking murky beyond this season, we need to discuss our next reason why the Titans should move on.

Paying Old Running Backs Stinks

After this season, Henry is set to become a free agent, since the last two years of his deal are nothing but cap hitting void years.

Henry’s performance over the years has become enjoyable to watch, but does it seriously warrant a second contract for Henry? Someone who is approaching 30 and would be worth money that the Titans might not want to shell out?

It’s an interesting question.

The Titans are projected to have well over $85M in cap space in 2024, this according to Spotrac. But with all that cap room, comes a likely influx of free agents, which will have plenty of notable Titans mainstays unless extensions are agreed upon before they hit the open market.

But as we know, not all of the Titans’ free agents will be guaranteed to return, which could open the door for another contract for Henry if the Titans elect to keep him for this upcoming season. Now most of that money will probably be spent on more important roster upgrades, should they hit the market and they look attractive to the Titans.

However, could some of that money really be spent on a new deal for Henry?

If that’s in the Titans’ plans — I doubt they’ve decided on that already — then I’d say they’d be mistaken. Like we’ve mentioned before, running backs over 30 haven’t had the most success in the modern era of football. So why would you pay one and risk further cap dilemmas down the road?

Yes, Henry has been dominant, and he’s defied reason. But doesn’t the thought of paying an aging back, while ignoring the fact that backs can be easily replaced, give you chills? And not the good ones?

I don’t know about you, but shelling out cash to a position that has shown to be pretty stinky with age, doesn’t feel right to me.

If you’re a meathead that’s only known the NFL to be a smack your head, bulldoze, old school shitshow, then you’d probably call me crazy. But we have loads of data to suggest that even entertaining this thought is borderline insanity.

So take that however you want.

The Reality

As a fan, I can understand it isn’t easy letting go of such a talented veteran that’s been with your team through thick and thin.

How do I know? I had to watch the greatest football — soccer for all you pansies — player of all time leave my favorite club (Barcelona) so suddenly. But as time passed, I came to accept it and knew the move was needed at the time

It feels the same way with Henry.

Henry has been the face of this franchise for 4 years running now and has done all the right things to keep the franchise happy. But data doesn’t lie, history doesn’t lie.

I think the Titans should move on from Henry, preferably by way of trade. The draft compensation wouldn’t be overly rich, considering his position and age. But his $16M cap hit would be fully or likely partially taken off the books, which would be fantastic for the Titans’ cap flexibility in 2023.

You might hate me for this, but I don’t care.

Data over emotional ties, history over gut feelings.

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