The Titans Draft: Will Levis

The Tennessee Titans traded up for what could be potentially their franchise quarterback in Will Levis. What does the process tell us about their conviction and what it means for Ryan Tannehill?

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Wow! Yesterday’s article was the most read article to date! Thanks to everyone new and old. Free and paid. Everyone who took the time to read that massive beast of an article.

That entire thing was free for 48 hours, and if you’re new here, this is a paid subscription newsletter. However, it is worthwhile to subscribe if you’re free because I normally have a good 25%-40% of the article as free. This week’s articles will be closer to the 40% maybe more, depending on word count.

However, it’s also worth subscribing for the paid content. You get access to various tools, data, and videos that I have created and there will be more stuff beyond my content and Tre’Jean’s coming down the pipeline.

As an avid subscriber to many services and sites, I know that summer is subscription renewal season. You can always tell because that is when sites (like PFF) offer big discounts for their services. They try to keep you on the hook with savings or get you to bite if you aren’t a subscriber.

This is a Titans only newsletter that is going to continue to grow. I have big plans for this site. In fact, plans I am going to announce this week that will change the Titans analysis site landscape for the better.

So, with that in mind, I implore you to consider subscribing to this site over auto-renewing subscriptions elsewhere. It’s just $4 a month. Here’s a little secret most of my data comes from PFF, PFRef, SIS, and most sites that you subscribe to anyways that are a way higher cost.

For example, if you subscribe to PFF+, save yourself $6 a month, and maybe we can start up a stat chat if we get enough interest. Just a thought.

Okay enough sales talk. Let’s dive into Will Levis and his impact on the team for years to come.

My Comeuppance

Well, they did it. They drafted Will Levis. My feelings about Will Levis are well known, I have essentially zero faith that he will develop into a franchise quarterback that can take this team to being perennial Super Bowl Contenders.

You can read the full article here in more detail, but I will give you the TL;DR:

• Lack of deep throw success.

• Lack of Big Time Throws.

• Mechanic issues which lead to accuracy issues.

• Zero consistency in any year he started for Kentucky.

• No touch/feel.

• Success vs SEC over his two years.

• His advance age.

That article has graphics, data, and analysis that all talk about those things in more detail. Truly, I don’t need to hammer any of those points home and beat a dead horse in today’s article.

However, I truly thought that Will Levis wasn’t worth the pick at 1.3, 1.11, or in the first round. That point stays, and I am not backing off that point. However, I will say I was wrong about a few things.

I was wrong in my belief that the Titans wouldn’t mesh well with a guy like Levis. I’ve always found Levis to be a goober in this pre-draft process. The TikTok videos don’t help his image in that regard, and I didn’t buy into the “he’s an awesome leader” kind of deal. There is just no way Vrabel doesn’t call this guy a butthead 24/7 at the facility.

I wasn’t the only one, reports and anonymous NFL team employees kind of echoed that sentiment. Weird guy. Aloof. All kinds of descriptors you wouldn’t really want your quarterback to be associated with.

That being said, when he interviewed with the local media and spoke to the national guys after he was drafted, I got it. I saw why a team would be drawn to his personality. You got a real glimpse into who he is as a person. Honestly, I got like current Tannehill at pressers in a soon to be 24-year-old body. I didn’t hate him. He didn’t come off like a buffoon. So, I see it.

I was also wrong about hating him at any value throughout the draft process. Obviously, #NeverLevis was for the first round, but I didn’t really want Levis at all. We will talk more on the actual draft value, process, etc., but spoiler alert: I wasn’t in a blind rage when they traded up and drafted him.

I think it’s because I get it. It’s better to go into 2024 with at least one young quarterback with upside rather than zero. The Titans were linked to all quarterback prospects heavily, and you knew there was a high chance they’d be walking away with one. So, I wasn’t surprised they followed through.

To be honest, I don’t hate what they gave up, like I thought I would. I had people checking in on me all night, and thank you for sending thoughts and prayers, but I was okay with it. Now is there some aspects I don’t like by trading up for Will Levis or a second round quarterback? Yes, but those are more to do with the strategy behind it than the value.

Am I turning into a two-tone blue, hometown boy? No. I maintain I have zero faith that this will end up with the Titans having a Super Bowl parade in my city, but I do find myself with more level of hope than I thought I would.

It boils down to what I have always said when I go big and bold with a usually correct, but negative opinion: I hope I am proven wrong. I have no problem saying I was wrong. In fact, I find myself rooting for me being wrong in this case.

I want all The Bluegrass Boyz in my mentions in a few years cold taking me. I am like that though; I don’t shy away from being wrong. If I am wrong about Levis that is a good thing, right? That’s how I view it.

Hopefully, Will Levis is the exception and not the rule.

Process Vs Conviction Vs Outcome

I know above was a massive section. This is going to be even more massive, and we will have our paywall split come up shortly in the middle, but this is an important discussion to have.

This is a discussion piece. Though I am the only one talking, I haven’t really come towards a conclusion yet on all of this, just various points of views and aspects about the Titans and their conviction with Will Levis.

Mike Herndon and I are staunch believers that if you believe a quarterback is your guy and you have conviction about it, go up and get him. Don’t fool around and just do it. I now start to wonder if we were leaving out important variables to this definitive statement.

I am not saying that we, or anyone else, are wrong to believe that. The statement is true. However, are there limitations or lines a team can’t cross in certain situations. When only having six picks and a quarterback due $27 million in cash, are there certain moves you can’t afford to make?

That’s the question in my mind. Justin Melo also brought up a point that I quickly dismissed, because he drinks milk out of bags, about what’s the difference in trading up to 32 for a quarterback (in a traditional draft) and 33 for a quarterback.

I argued its mainly the 5th year option and the willingness to spend much more draft capital to go up and get the guy at 32 (or 31 in this year’s case) to get that guy. Was I right? Let’s look at two QB trades for 1.32:

• The Ravens gave up 2018 2nd (2.52), 4.125, and a 2019 2nd

  • They got Lamar Jackson (1.32), 4.132

• Minnesota Vikings gave up 2.40, 4.108

  • They got Teddy Bridgewater

Now, let’s look at the trades from night one of the draft:

• Arizona Cardinals move up 6 spots:

  • Arizona gets: Paris Johnson, 3.81

  • Detroit gets: 1.12, 2.34, 5.168

• Philadelphia Eagles move up 1 spot:

  • Chicago gets: 1.10, 2024 4th

  • Philadelphia gets: Jalen Carter

• New York Giants move up 1 spot:

  • New York gets: Deonte Banks

  • Jaguars get: 1.25, 5.160, 7.240

• Buffalo Bills Move up 2 spots:

  • Bills get: Dalton Kincaid

  • Jaguars get: 1.27, 4.130

These trades necessarily don’t look like you’re given up too much, but to move to 31 the Titans would be moving up 10 spots, and it is from the second round, not within the first. That is going to cost you a lot more. Roughly a 2nd, 3rd, and some kind of later pick swap or future pick, with getting just the player in return.

I wish I could find the report, but the search algorithm is all screwed up putting in Bills, trade, Titans, rumor. However, there was a specific report from either Albert Breer, Tony Pauline, or possibly one of the talking heads, that the Titans had a deal in place to trade up with the Bills, but Kincaid kept falling so they went up for him instead.

Titans had conviction, just not results. It does take two to tango in trading. However, why not enough conviction at 11? The Big Board, baby.

We know the Titans had positional value of quarterback fairly high. They were trying to trade up for C.J. Stroud, and when he came off the board, they pulled their offer. They rolled the dice. At their pick they took the best available player on their board: Peter Skoronski.

They said, and take this at face value, they were shocked he fell to them, and the general consensus among experts is that was true, but they also said they’d consider taking Levis there if Skoronski wasn’t there.

Let’s take a look at the Big Board. Remember, I made one akin to what Carthon said his looks like: built vertically and horizontally. I made adjustments, but this is probably how their board looked:

Obviously, I have JSN too high, but technically their board fell this way. C.J. Stroud was worthy of a trade up, and Skoronski was just slightly ahead of Levis. However, he was high enough to try and trade back into the first round to get. They had, like many NFL teams, a first round grade on Levis.

There’s just different levels of conviction and they fold in to how to properly build a team. The Ravens had Mark Andrews over Lamar Jackson on their big board, but still had enough conviction to spend high picks to trade up to get him.

The Titans just didn’t have the ammo. However, they rolled the dice and won the game, according to their big board. A 2024 3rd Round pick and dropping a few spots in the third in 2023, isn’t a huge loss. Well, that is if Levis is successful.