The Titans Draft: The Plan & What's Next

What the Tennessee Titans draft told us about their vision and what should be the next moves

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Happy Sunday! You’d think I would take a break because of all of the amazing draft coverage myself and my work/life companions put out, but the wife is on a girls’ trip, and it is just me and the kids left to our own devices.

Now that we are officially done with the NFL draft, let me tell ya, I am pretty shocked. No, not at the results or certain draft picks. I am shocked because I am one of the few level-headed analysts in the local media right now.

How did that happen? I should be furious. The Titans didn’t walk away with two wide receivers like I wanted AND drafted my least favorite quarterback prospect. Yet, I am as calm as can be. I think it boils down to setting the proper expectations for this team in 2023 very early.

I have been screaming about two things for months: you should try and just coast through 2023 and this isn’t a full-on rebuild. I think for me that must be why I found myself not at all that surprised with the outcome.

What the NFL Told You

That the wide receivers the nerd community (fans, fanalysts, analysts, pundits, etc.) were high on, the NFL wasn’t. Specifically, players like Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Josh Downs, Tyler Scott, and A.T. Perry.

Hyatt, Tillman, and Scott were among the most surprising free-falls to me initially, but I am pretty plum surprised that A.T. Perry fell all the way to the sixth round. That’s a prospect where I am wondering what I missed that evaluators caught on film. Maybe it wasn’t a film issue and there is something off-the-field or in his medicals that we aren’t privy too. Off-the-field can man stuff like work ethic and effort.

Perry was big, productive, and athletic, so we all missed something that teams saw. So, obviously it wasn’t just the Titans, but the entirety of the NFL, that had Perry much, much lower on their board than everyone else.

Speaking of the NFL’s boards, everyone was wrong about Tyler Scott. He almost fell into the fifth round, and likely would’ve be the Titans pick if he was there when on the clock, but what a surprising fall. He is a team captain, a workhorse, and a genuinely intelligent kid. On top of that he is fast and physical. In fact, one of my comps for him was Darnell Mooney, so it was odd the Bears drafted him considering they already have him. Possibly preparing for a future without him?

If the Titans hadn’t traded up for Levis, I could’ve seen them drafting Tillman or Hyatt. They both would’ve been available at 72, however, the Titans view their new *potential* franchise QB as more important than having high placement in the third round. They’re right in the fact that if he does indeed turn into a franchise QB. However, I thought Scott would be the pick in the third round.

They rolled the dice, played the board and went with the player that would’ve been ranked much higher and that’s Tyjae Spears. Picked where he was predicted to go. Technically, it was a few spots later, but pretty much the consensus was third round for Spears. In fact, after Spears two more running backs went in the 80s. Good chance that Spears would’ve been gone by the 5th round, which means they got the better value from the NFL’s perspective as well as their own.

It almost worked. Almost. So close. It would’ve been awesome too, because everyone who whined and boo-hoo’ed about the Spears pick, would’ve looked dumb. Instead, Scott is off the board, and instead of reaching for favorites that went in the sixth round (A.T. Perry, Xavier Hutchinson, Parker Washington, etc.) they went with a pass-catching, athletic Y-TE.

All of this to say, those perceived as mid-round favorites of the draft community and fan world, weren’t as high on ANY team’s big board. That means everyone, including myself, needs to take a step back and re-evaluate their own process.

What the Titans Told You

The Titans told you it was best player available or bust this go around. Their best players available were all offense. Which is surprising because it says more about the defense to me.

While the defense doesn’t have any true holes, I was surprised to see that at no point was a cornerback their best player on their board at any of their picks. I think that says a lot about the current room as it sits.

We know this team believes that affecting the quarterback through pass rush leads to a better stat line from your cornerback room. I think we all, and I am largely to blame, dove a little too deep into the “Kristian Fulton likely trade candidate” waters. That to me is the clearest message the Titans sent.

I talked about it this weekend, but maybe the Titans new defensive backs coach sees a lot of potential in this group. He is an excellent coach and maybe he thinks he can get this group back on track.

One of the biggest issues was it seemed the defensive backs lacked technique and communication on what they’re supposed to be doing. It didn’t seem the timing of passing off the wide receivers were synced up correctly, and that they seemed to be out of their spot a lot.

That is a coaching issue. We saw that when Vrabel decided to not have a DC, and then installed Bowen as DC the following season. Communication improved. Clarity was provided. That’s what the firing of Anthony Midget and hiring of Chris Harris will provide.

Or at least, that is what Vrabel, and the actions of this team are telling you. You’re getting Elijah Molden back. You added Sean Murphy-Bunting. You now have a year of experience under the belts of Roger McCreary and Tre Avery. Fulton should come back and perform well, like most players playing in their final contract.

Then there is Year 3 of Caleb Farley. Do not underestimate this. I am of the belief that Chris Harris wants a shot at coaching Farley. Not only that, but the Titans are also providing Farley with his former defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech. Justin Hamilton’s addition as defensive quality control coach is definitely for the last ditch effort to salvage Farley.

Farley doesn’t lack confidence. He doesn’t lack athleticism. It was all about technique and what’s between the ears. Again, that’s fixable. I truly believe the Titans are satisfied with this cornerback room. The draft told us that. Their coaching additions told us that. It’s time we listen.

Expectations

I am big on expectations. I think everyone is allowed to set their own expectation. I always encourage people to look at words and then the following actions of teams when setting a season-long expectation. This is where I think the disconnect largely stems from.

Let me be clear here, I am not telling you what to think or to set your expectations. You want to set the goal high, by all means go ahead. I am just trying to provide context to how I arrived at my own belief.

First, I set expectations based on actions. Back in 2021, when the Titans traded for Julio Jones, that was the expectation setter. This team felt it was a Super Bowl winner and they got the missing piece by pairing Jones with Brown and Henry. Even though they did say it, their actions should properly set the expectation of a Super Bowl.

Despite going 12-4, they failed to meet those expectations. So, at the start of the 2022 off-season your expectations have to be blank. Clean slate. They cut Julio, traded for Robert Woods, Henry was going to be back, things were looking up. Then they traded AJ Brown, Harold Landry went to IR, and expectations needed to shift.

I felt winning the division was the proper expectation for this year. Then I watched them play game one, and I was like “Nope”, and quickly told everyone this team wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs.

I was berated for weeks for my objectivity, and I had to fight tooth and nail with both my co-hosts and explain why this team was fraudulent. Turns out, duh, I was right. Now I didn’t expect it to go off the rails the way it did, but this team just didn’t have it.

So here we are now heading into 2023, and my expectation has kind of settled on: This team will be better than last year’s, but not good enough for any of it to matter. What I mean by that is this: they can win the division and compete for that, but they’ll be one and done in the playoffs.

This has been my expectation all offseason. The moves made in free agency and in the draft truly just happen to line up with that expectation. I am not sure where this idea that the Titans should be making big splashy moves to become Super Bowl Contenders in 2023 comes from.

Their previous GM left them an incredible mess to clean up and the harm can’t be undone in one season. In fact, free agency and the draft pretty much limited the ability to do that. So, they did what they could with what they were given.

Let’s start off with free agency. Once the Titans season was over everyone, and I do mean everyone, talked about how piss poor this free agency class was. It was below average in the worst possible way for the Titans specific needs. The wide receivers were pitiful and not a needle mover among them.

So, we all had that expectation, and then somewhere along the way the majority of fans and media lost sight of that. All of a sudden, the fans and media are like: “Why didn’t you sign a wide receiver! Why didn’t you address this position!”

How? By over-spending on guys like JuJu and Jakobi Meyers when you have many needs needing to be addressed? We have to be realistic and also honest. There were players available that were upgrades over NWI and Chris Moore. How much of an upgrade? Modest.

River Cracraft would’ve been better than both, but not at the level the team needed. Mack Hollins and Paris Campbell would’ve been considerable upgrades. In fact, signing either of them at the same price you paid both Moore and NWI is way better value.

Other than that, you are spending big money on guys who have question marks about health, age, and/or talent. The previous GM left this team needing a wide receiver and limited funds and resources to make it happen.

So, it made sense with how they approached the position heading into the draft. In my mind, the draft had enough depth to attack it. Heading into the draft and during the draft are two different environments.

I am not happy with how they handled the WR position in the draft. I don’t think this current iteration of the roster needed to lean so heavily into the best player available sitting shotgun while needs are in the trunk. However, the draft largely settled in nicely to the expectation.

This team did get better than 2022’s version of the Titans. It largely still relies on health:

• Harold Landry is back. Arden Key was added.

• The cornerback room gained not only Sean Murphy-Bunting but also Chris Harris.

• The subtraction fo Todd Downing

• The offensive line got better via the draft and free agency placing a premium on athletes who are better pass protectors.

• The offensive line also gained a well-liked and respect coach who has made impressions with prospects on his visits and pro days.

• The staff grew having more minds to bring new ideas or perspective to the table.

• The tight end room got way better.

The only thing lacking is the wide receiver room, which is largely the same. However, the Titans clearly have the expectation that Kyle Philips and Treylon Burks will be big contributors in terms of snaps and production. That is a realistic expectation to have.

The other person is Chig Okonkwo’s continued ascent into superstar status that began last year. More snaps and involvement for him means better passing production as well.

This team can contend for the division. This team won’t contend for the Super Bowl. The actions of those in charge directly reflect that. You just need to choose to pay attention.

That’s the expectation of the team as a whole, but I wanted to do one quick reminder one what your expectation for the draft picks should be. These are the minimum expectations for the drafted rookies. I think it’s always lost that a sixth rounder isn’t expected to be a massive contributor year one, but they can always end up that way.

• 1st Round: Every-down contributor (i.e. starter) after no more than one year of development who you’d want to sign to a 2nd contract after his rookie deal expires.

• 2nd Round: Every-down contributor at some point over his rookie contract.

• 3rd Round: Rotational contributor after no more than one year of development, with the potential to become an every-down contributor.

• 4th Round: Rotational contributor at some point over his rookie contract.

• 5th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any 3 of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

• 6th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any 2 of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

• 7th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

This week I will be profiling all the different rookies and setting expectations for each. I will also talk about the path/strategy involved in drafting them.

So, how does proper expectations help you see the obvious vision/plan they have for the team?

The Plan

This is another thing I have a hard time understanding where everyone is coming from. Like I said maybe it’s because of others having the incorrect expectations but the draft made total sense.

It reeked of collaboration and showed me that both the Coach and the General Manager are perfectly aligned and in lockstep with what the envision this team being in 2023 and laying the groundwork for beyond.

If you thought this team was aiming to be Super Bowl contenders in 2023, I would agree, this draft wouldn’t make sense to you. If you thought this team was blowing it up, even though I repeatedly told you they weren’t, then this draft would make sense to you.

So, I think therein lies the problem. This team was always doing a “Glow Up!™". A basic re-tooling or soft reset of the roster. It’s kind of like the “Dr. Who” adventures when they switch actors for The Doctor or change out his companion, they keep the history in-tact, and the bones of the story are there, but it’s a new story to tell.

The team told you this what it was going to do. You either just willfully ignored it because you want to throw your own temper tantrum over them not doing things how you want it done or you just decided to ostrich it and put your hand in the sand.

However, that is the general you, you the subscriber likely aren’t falling into either of those categories because you all pay to be well informed. Anyways, so what’s the vision/plan of this team?

You’ll hear me talk about this all week, but here is where we are at with their approach (I don’t necessarily agree with this approach, I am just relaying their view):

• This team was winning games with an awful OL and subpar wide receiver group in 2022, until key injuries happened throughout the season.

  • They are able to correct the offensive line fairly easily and cheaply without overextending resources.

  • They focused on pass protection and athleticism being that was their main issues last year.

• Despite trying to move on from them, the team has deftly played the PR game and has done a good job of not alienating their expensive Quarterback and Running Back, both of whom are on the last year of their deal.

  • Keeping them in the loop throughout the off-season was a good move by the GM and coach.

  • This allows the team to identify their replacements and try to get them in the draft without making either one of them pissed off.

  • This still leaves the door open for possibly moving on from them if the situation presents itself.

• They identified their replacements and drafted them.

  • The conviction topic is for later, but the Titans obviously had a board that had first round grades on Young, Stroud, and Levis, but Peter Skoronski was a higher first round grade than Levis.

  • According to reports, they tried to trade back into the first with the Bills to draft Will Levis, but Dalton Kincaid fell to the Bills, and they backed out.

  • They ended up trading up in the second for a much cheaper price and got their quarterback of the future.

  • They spent a lot of time with Tyjae Spears. Senior Bowl, dinner before the Pro day, Top-30 visits, a ton of time. Their guy was available to them in the third and they drafted what they believe to be an every done running back.

• So, they improved the defense that was already good, improved the offensive line that was an issue, and added playmakers at running back and tight end.

• They also added people to the staff and got rid of one of the worst play callers in the entirety of the NFL. This is also a plus.

• They also project to see increased production and snaps from Treylon Burks, Kyle Philips, and Chig Okonkwo.

• With the last three bullet points plus a weaker schedule this team believes it will be competitive enough to win the division and gain major momentum heading into 2024.

• 2024 is when they can go big with more money, and hopefully less holes. Building around their franchise quarterback like other winning franchises.

That’s always been the plan. This has always been the vision. Doesn’t this make sense? Isn’t this what we are seeing? It’s not about 2023, it’s about correcting the mistakes of 2020-2022 at a realistic pace and setting this franchise up for sustained, long-term success.

Sure, it’s not my ideal plan, and it’s very likely not yours. However, don’t say you can’t see the plan. Put your ego aside or take your blinders off and come join reality.

They’re also not done.

What’s Next

We know the Titans are not done with the wide receiver room. Mike Vrabel all but confirmed that at Saturday night’s post-draft presser. Of course, this got everyone excited…but why?

Can the wide receiver room be improved? Yes, but just like in free agency it is just going to be marginally improved. Realistically, there isn’t a move that can or should be made that will change the outlook of this team in 2023 and make it Super Bowl contenders.

Are there moves that make it more watchable? Sure. However, the team needs to make sure the move makes sense. Let’s start off with some clarity on what kind of players get cut.

Players being replaced because they had to be replaced because they’re not good. Players are often cut cause they’re too expensive and they haven’t lived up to their contract. Sometimes its mixture of both and finally, they can’t stay healthy.

Corey Davis is the name everyone has been begging for since like October of 2022. Mike Herndon spiraled so much this weekend he turned into the biggest hypocrite and is now wanting him here. Davis is the guy who stays injured, got paid too much money, and never lived up to his contract. So, he is getting pushed out of town because they need a better player.

My initial remark is, man Davis will be so great! NWI will only start 14 games instead of 17. Hyperbolic of course, but the point remains the same, NWI will still be on this team and see considerable snaps, because Davis can’t stay healthy.

There’s also the past situation of his last days here as a Titan. I posted the Raw Room Clip of him talking about not even being offered any contract to stay. Now people will say “New regime, that guy is gone!:” However, let’s keep the possibility open the Vrabel/JRob situation hasn’t soured back then yet.

Which brings me to Davis’s last game with the Titans. That 4th quarter benching in the playoffs was so weird. Even though it was supposedly "due to injury", Davis didn't act that way in the moment on the field.

To me it just seemed that whole relationship ended awful. Maybe him and Vrabel have patched things up, but I don't know. Look, if anyone can patch things up its Vrabel/Ran.

For me, it just doesn't move the needle knowing he will miss enough games to cost the team wins more than likely. Just seems like a guy that'll get everyone pumped and everyone hopes up for nothing. Which is on brand for Titans FA wide receivers, but I am ready to go off script for once.

I know he still has a house here and maybe he’s grown up a little and the regime has changed just enough in a positive way for him to forgive and forget. If it is a very cheap, 1 year/$2.5m prove it deal, I would understand it, but it isn’t going to change my outlook for this team.

Other Possible Cut Candidates:

• Arizona: Rondale Moore, Zach Pascal

• L.A. Rams: Tutu Atwell

• Carolina: Dameiere Byrd, Shi Smith, Terrace Marshall

• New Orleans: Tre’Quan Smith, Bryan Edwards

• Green Bay: Bo Melton

• Chicago: Dante Pettis, Daurice Fountain, maybe one of Chase Claypool/Equanimeous St. Brown

• Philadelphia: Quez Watkins, Greg Ward

• New York Giants: David Sills, Collin Johnson, Jamison Crowder, Sterling Shepard

• Dallas: Simi Fehoko, Jalen Tolbert, Antonio Callaway

• L.A. Chargers: Josh Palmer, John Hightower, Keelan Doss

• Las Vegas: Tyler Johnson, Cam Sims, Phillip Dorsett

• Kansas City: Cornell Powell, Justyn Ross, Ihmir Smith-Marsette

• Denver: Kendall Hinton

• Jacksonville: Kevin Austin

• Indianapolis: Vyncent Smith, Kristian Wilkerson

• Houston: Steven Sims, Amari Rodgers

• Cleveland: Anthony Schwartz, Michael Woods, Jakeem Grant, Demetric Felton

• Cincinnati: Trent Taylor

• New York Jets: Corey Davis, Denzel Mims

• Miami: Cedrick Wilson, Chosen Anderson

That’s about it. Also, why would any teams cut these guys right now? I think the most appealing name on the list is Josh Palmer. However, I am not sure if that is very likely at this moment.

In the end, the wide receiver solution isn’t going to be solved in 2023 without a major trade. Guys that spring to mind are DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans. For Mike Evans I would say “fuck them picks” and do a deal in a heartbeat and rework his contract. For Hopkins, I’d pass.

Readers, fans, haters…there’s just no need to force a wide receiver on this team via trade or big contract. They can’t add anyone that will take this team from division contender to Super Bowl contender. Even Mike Evans wouldn’t do that, but I trade for him for 2024 and beyond.

The Titans would be better off waiting on a much better wide receiver class in 2024 to find a few guys.

Conclusion

In the end the Titans chose not to enter panic mode this offseason. They knew that if they made moves that it would involve overcorrecting and exacerbating the money and draft capital issues that have carried over from Jon Robinson.

They know that if they get guys that buy in to what the message is inside the building and stay healthy, they can go from a team that was on a seven game losing streak to a team that will win the division.

Mike Vrabel is not wanting to start off this year with a massive losing streak. While his job is not on the line, he is a guy who loves winning too much to tank. Carthon on Vrabel are wanting to build sustained success and that requires changing the way the Titans ran under Robinson. It requires creating, gaining, and keeping positive momentum to roll into the next year.

So, do I think the Titans had some perfect draft? No. Do I agree with their plan or strategy? No. However, I do believe the strategy and vision are as clear as day and can lead to a successful outlook for this franchise long-term.

I also believe that the expectation of division contenders may not be sexy, it is likely the most achievable expectation for this team. Adjust accordingly.

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