The Tennessee Titans' Lack of Analytics Department Hurt Their 2022 (Part 2 of 3)

Continuing the series on how the "I am the Analytics Department" approach by Jon Robinson was a huge reason for the demise of the 2022 Tennessee Titans.

A lot of this data comes from various sites that have this available to you, me, and the team. Also, I draw a lot of inspiration and information from Warren Sharp’s book which is a must read on all 32 teams.

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Yesterday evening, Stoney was gracious enough to have me on The Unofficial Titans Podcast. Together we produced one of the best titans related pieces of content I have ever been a part. I’d put it right up there with the best of Football & Other F Words.

We talked about Jake Locker’s career as the Titans QB. The draft profiles, life after football, how he’s remembered, the situation he’s been in, and the What If. It is truly a great listen and you need to click here and hear for yourself.

You may be asking yourself what this has to do with analytics. Well, not a whole lot, but it did take me back down memory lane on a few things. One of the main things it made me realize just how stuck this organization has been.

The Titans make it real hard for fans because they make life hard on themselves. The Titans seem to be around seven to ten years behind most modern NFL teams. Not just in terms of how they play the game on the field, but also behind the scenes in the front office.

Don’t get me wrong. I am happy the Titans are embracing a more forward-thinking approach with analytics, but again, they’re playing catch-up. This stems from a meddlesome owner who wanted things ran a certain way.

The next owner was someone who had no business being in charge and made a coaching decision in Ken Whisenhunt that on its face was a spark of modernizing the team, but he failed to look at the bigger picture of that coach.

The next, and current, owner was learning trial-by-fire. Choosing a new general manager mainly because he was willing to work with the former interim, and soon to be promoted, head coach. 

Amy Adams-Strunk has corrected her mistake on both fronts, but the general manager fix, still has the Titans behind the eight ball. How quickly can Ran Carthon make up ground on his fellow NFL competitors? 

In part one of this article series, I provided a lot of context to the 2022 season. I truly think that if Jon Robinson had stopped being stubborn and had a fully-functioning analytics department, that it could’ve help the Titans win games last season. Saved his job. Made the team better. Prevented a losing streak. All these things.

Now there is a caveat to all of that: Mike Vrabel would have to be willing to listen and implement these competitive advantages. A segment think he is too stubborn to do so, and maybe to an extent they’re right. However, I bet Vrabel would’ve been willing to try anything after losing the third game in a row. He is a competitor himself after all.

The Titans didn’t make last season easy on the fans at all. They were a flawed football team starting in week one. I wrote them off completely after that Giants game. Something felt off. The way that Giants game ended. The play calls made. The uncharacteristic penalties. It just felt like a harbinger of things to come.

A lot of people said I was way too early and maybe even outright an idiot. This just wasn’t the AFC contending team we’ve come to known. I’ve written and talked about it, but every decision by Robinson had a ripple effect that just culminated in the tsunami that was the 2022 season.

This is a lot of negativity, but 2022 rightfully deserves that. However, we could be talking about how I was wrong and how bright the future is, if the Titans had any sort of true semblance of an analytics department.

Good Vibes: Mike Vrabel vs the Chiefs

Before we get into some hard data. I do want to brag on the Titans under Mike Vrabel. The Titans have Patrick Mahomes’ number in the regular season. Before the game this last season, in with Malik Willis played, they were 2-0 versus Mahomes.

The Titans have never lost to him in the regular season. If you include the playoffs, they’re 2-1. The regular season stat is important because no one in his own division can say that. Here’s his records against his rivals:

• Chargers: 7-2

• Raiders: 9-1

• Broncos: 11-0

The Titans are among the Bills and Bengals when it comes to teams that have a 2-1 record in the regular season among the Chiefs. Now think about the disparity in rosters among the Titans, Bills, and Bengals. But also, the disparity versus the Chiefs’ roster. Specifically, last season.

Let’s talk about that game. The Titans almost made it 3-0 versus Mahomes in the regular season with Willis as their starting quarterback. Willis went 5-16 for 80 yards passing. The Titans led most of the game and forced overtime.

That is wild to think about. If Tannehill had been in that game (or Downing fired) (or analytics were a thing) they very likely would’ve won that game. They weren’t that far off from winning it despite not having any of that.

This is a prime example of why Vrabel is an elite head coach. With a barely functioning quarterback. He had his team leading 17-9 with under 3 minutes. It took Mahomes having a miracle drive and overtime to win the game by 3-points.

Keep in mind that they were favored by 14-points! The Titans were 14-point underdogs and almost won the game. This is why people should not underestimate this team in 2023. Not saying put a Super Bowl label on them, but this team is going to win more games than people think because they thrive on being the underdog.

According to Warren Sharp: the Titans are the ONLY team in the NFL to be .500 or better when being lined as an underdog since 2020. Just something to keep in mind when placing your bets this year.

How Analytics Could've Helped: Play Calling