The Tennessee Titans & Sam F'N Darnold
A lot of people act like Sam Darnold is some nightmare scenario. It isn't. It's not expensive and he's actually a good quarterback!
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Sam Darnold has become quite the decisive figure among fans and media covering the Tennessee Titans. The tag deadline has come and gone, and he is set, most likely, to become a free agent. Now, could the Minnesota Vikings and him work out a short-term deal? Maybe, but I don’t find it very likely. If they were close, they would’ve tagged him. The non-tag this late in the game signals to me that they’re not close, but things can always change, I just doubt it.
So, today I am going to bust some narratives, something I have been doing on the radio at 104.5 the zone on Cover 2 with Blaine Bishop and Zach Lyons, Monday through Friday 1p-3p CST. I will be breaking down:
Sam Darnold’s career past and future
What Will He Cost?
How it Benefits the 2025 Titans
Reminder: I am not saying “Sam Darnold or Bust”. I am saying it’s not the expensive hellscape everyone thinks it is.
The Sam Darnold Career Arc
All year long after Titans games, we got callers and people in the chat for the radio show, talk about “What if Levis turns out to be Baker? Geno? Darnold?” as in, why give up on him, he could go somewhere else and turn into those guys later down the line! Well, now the Titans have a chance to get the guy they said Levis could be, and they’re like “nah, brah, he sucks.”
Darnold had a rough start to his career. He was drafted to the New York Jets. Can I end it there? The same team that let’s teenagers use Madden to dictate what they do. The same team who signed up for the Aaron Rodgers experience then acted like they were the victims.
I like Todd Bowles, and maybe it’s an organizational thing and not a head coach thing but pairing a rookie QB with a defensive (and lame duck) head coach wasn’t smart. At that time Darnold was throwing to Robby Anderson (I won’t call him by the other name), Jermaine Kearse and Quincy Enunwa. They fire Bowles, sign Adam “Crazy Eyes” Gase and thus his rookie years are wasted. Darnold ended up succumbing to the path most rookie QBs do:
Drafted to Bad Team + Thrown to Wolves + No Help = He sucks!
He then when to an equally disastrous situation in Carolina where Matt Rhule was head coach, but in year two of Carolina and Steve Wilks took over, he went 4-2 down the stretch after getting his starting job back from: Baker Mayfield.
So, why can’t Sam Darnold be Baker Mayfield for the Titans? Why is that so hard to believe? Well, I wanted to dive into a few data points. There’s no denying Baker Mayfield had greater success with the Browns than Darnold did with the Jets. As dysfunctional as the Browns can be, they tried everything in their power to make Mayfield work and they did find some success along the way, but the marriage still ended in divorce.
I think Mayfield had a better situation overall than Darnold did, and really his own behavior is why it was easy for the Browns to move on. I am sure they regret that move now, but Darnold was a victim throughout. What did they look like before they signed with their latest teams?
Avg. Total QBR (not passer rating):
Pre-Bucs Baker: 47.7
Pre-Vikes Darnold: 44.1
Success Rate:
Pre-Bucs Baker: 45.6%
Pre-Vikes Darnold: 42.9%
No denying that when they were in different situations Mayfield looked better than Darnold. Yet, they weren’t that far off from each other. What about when they both got to the Panthers and dealt with the same situations in that 2022 season?
Avg. Total QBR (not passer rating):
2022 CAR Baker: 29.2
2022 CAR Darnold: 51.4
Success Rate:
2022 CAR Baker: 35.1%
2022 CAR Darnold: 48.6%
In fact, we can dive further in this Panthers QB battle:
Baker that same year proceeded to go to the Sean McVay home for Wayward QBs, looked very good and then signed a modest deal with the Bucaneers in 2023. Darnold somehow, even though he performed better (even including Rams Baker), could only land a backup role in the Bay Area Rehab Facility in 2023. Which is surprising because Darnold did more with the same and at the same time, did more with less than either version of Baker Mayfield we saw in 2022. In terms of EPA+CPOE composite: Darnold was the 4th best QB in starting in Week 12 to Week 18, Baker was 26th with the Rams.
What about the jumps they took in year one with their new teams, the Bucs and Vikings?
Avg. Total QBR (not passer rating):
Baker: 47.7 -> 55.1 (15.1%)
Darnold: 44.1 -> 60.4 (37%)
Success Rate:
Baker: 45.6% -> 45.9 (0.66%)
Darnold: 42.9% -> 50.9 (18.7%)
Obviously, both saw jumps in overall, but Darnold did find a bigger one. Mainly because he landed in such a better situation than what he had prior.
So, if you’re a fan, and would be willing to take on Baker Mayfield, why not take on Sam Darnold? I think the “surroundings” argument does make sense somewhat. He won’t be the 60.4 QBR guy here in Tennessee. I am not totally unrealistic about Darnold. Yet, I do think 2022 Panthers Darnold showed who he could be even in a bad situation. Kind of like the 2025 Titans.
I used “bad” loosely in describing the Titans, because I am not sure of how their roster will look at the conclusion of FA and the draft, but it’s likely to be, at the very least, on the same level as the 2022 Panthers. Keep in mind, Will Levis concluded the season with a QBR of 27.8 and Success Rate of 38.2%, both last out of 32 QBs. Compared to Panthers Darnold of 51.4 and 48.6% that would be a huge bump.
Last year, all everyone talked about were two things: Special Teams sucked and a better QB wins you more games. Well, theoretically, they solved special teams by hiring one of the best and most well-respected special team coaches in the game. Why not solve quarterback with a known commodity?
Even on this team last year, I could point to several games where Darnold wins you the game: Bears, Jets, Colts (Week 6), Jaguars x 2. That doesn’t include maybe shifting other losses into wins from the Vikings and Week 18 vs the Texans. That is 5 extra games at minimum where his presence makes you feel much better about the prospects of this team heading into 2025.
Also, spare me the “OL sucks” bullshit. It sucked in Minnesota too. Also, because it sucked in 2024, doesn’t mean it sucks in 2025.
Pass Block Efficiency:
TEN: 28th
MIN: 30th
OL Sack %:
TEN: 5.2%
MIN: 4.4%
OL Pressure %:
TEN: 3.1%
MIN: 3.3%
What Will It Cost?
I tweeted about it earlier, but I think everyone has been viewing Darnold’s market all wrong this entire season. I have been adamant the Vikings aren’t going to tag him and that no one is going to pay him like a $50m per year quarterback. I am on the record as saying neither make sense and really, I always thought $40m was the max. Baker Mayfield’s contract has always been my reference point.
First, just a reminder, AAV (Average Annual Value) =/= Cap Hit. Agents do use AAV to as a negotiating point, and they’re very smart to do so. So, they will look at similar players to their client and use their AAV’s to kind of settle on a number for their client. AAV, however, isn’t really tied heavily to cap space or spending. It’s just an easier “data point” to understand. Kind of like Yards per Attempt.
Secondly, I think there is a “Mandela Effect” going on with quarterback contracts. People are seeing things that aren’t there. They see reports of these gaudy quarterback contracts and think the latest one is “way more” money than the prior one. That isn’t true. So, that is something we will be breaking down and I will be illustrating in a few moments.
Lastly, I think people view Darnold differently than the NFL does. They see Tua, Herbert, Goff, Love, Dak, etc., getting these $50m+ AAV contracts and high fully guaranteed amounts, and think…well Darnold is next, he will get more. There’s a massive gap in that thought process. He’s not those guys.
Those guys, at the time of their signing, were considered the “Franchise QB” of those teams. The “face” of the football program. You can’t apply those high dollar amounts to Darnold’s situation, because as of right now he is considered a “bridge quarterback”. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but he is more on the tier of when Baker and Geno first signed their latest deals as starter for the Bucs and Seahawks. They’re not the long-term solution at the time of signing, but a player that can buy you time.
Now, you could argue that Mayfield has maybe turned into a franchise guy for the Bucs, but that is not what he was initially paid as last year. They told you this because they put in a one-year out, only did three years, and he has the 18th ranked AAV ($33.3m/per year).
Ultimately now the questions become: what is his market and what will he logically cost?
Let’s start with his market. By all reports, Minnesota is out. Matthew Berry shared that he heard at the combine that Minnesota hasn’t even made an offer…not even a low ball one. They’re out. Makes sense. They have a QB of the future they need to put in, so Darnold would want a longer-term contract, not look over his shoulder. In fact, the Vikings have said that he has earned free agency multiple times, so, why waste anyone’s time.
So, that gets to the rest of the market. The New York Jets are obviously out of the equation given their history. The Giants are a maybe, but if he is viewed as a bridge quarterback, then he wouldn’t fit Giants ownership’s directive of finding the quarterback of the future. So, I think they’re out, also Darnold going back to New York Media Thunderdome? Yeah, I doubt it.
Cleveland definitely can’t afford him, so, they’re out. We are down to the Raiders, Steelers, and Titans. This is where things get interesting. Players, like Maxx Crosby, want Rodgers in Vegas. Lots of smoke swirling around Russ in Vegas as well. Then the Steelers seem to be pretty locked in on Justin Fields by all accounts.
So, it comes down to, what do the teams view as their best case scenario? To be honest, I have no clue. I would think the Raiders, who were in on Stafford, would be in on Sam Darnold. They have the cash and cap space to beat out any team they want in the NFL right now. They make a lot of sense from a fit and money perspective. However, are they are really being tied to guys like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers with the hopes to duplicate success from the Seahawks (Russ) or Buccaneers (Rodgers)? Maybe they’re going those routes to draft Shedeur Sanders who has been heavily connected to them for a while now.
The Steelers should be in on Sam Darnold, because he would thrive there, and he would be the best quarterback they’ve had since Ben. However, they have made weird QB decisions every year since Big Ben has retired. If I were the Steelers, with the shape of their roster, I would also rather go for an ARod + Adams combo over anything else. That would work out for everyone and maximize the entire roster for at least one-year.
That leaves the Titans as the last of the three QB needy teams that dictate Darnold’s market. What that shows you is that the demand for Darnold is very limited. Things could change between now and then, but the demand isn’t there like everyone thought it would be.
In fact, Daniel Jeremiah said yesterday, that Darnold wouldn’t get near $40m in AAV. Which was eyebrow raising coming out of the combine. But with Minnesota out and other teams taking themselves out for various reasons, it really is down to three teams and the Titans are definitely in play.
TD and Jeremy Fowler reported this morning that the Titans are interested in the “$30m range” but nothing extravagant. This goes in with what PK reported as the Titans won’t be interested in a “long-term, high-dollar commitment.” These may seem like conflicting reports, but they really aren’t. $40m may be a high dollar commitment, but maybe something less isn’t. 4 years may be long-term, but maybe 3 years isn’t.
All of this to say, without true clarity and definitions of terms, we aren’t clear where the Titans breaking point is. However, this, again, is why I bring up the Baker Mayfield contract, and that is where we are at now, the contract numbers. We are going to look at three general options: Basic Contract, Above Average Contract, and Expensive Contract.
So, here’s what I did in as simple as terms as I can make it:
Put together the years, total amount, AAV, signing bonus, and fully guaranted money at signing for Herbert, Goff, Tua, Love, and Dak.
I got the percentage of what the signing bonus and fully guaranteed money was for each contract based on the amount of contract. Example: Fully Guaranteed Money / Amount of Contract = % Fully GTD
I then calculated the growth rate of the first four QBs contract amount. (I used Herbert as AAV*4 years to get a proper growth rate)
I then calculated the growth rate of the first four QBs AAVs
That gives us a baseline for what a “Basic Contract Growth Rate” for QBs
I then did the same thing above, but included Dak’s number. That gave us the “Above Average Contract Growth Rate”
I then look at the percentage of signing and fully guaranteed money columns. Got the average of the closest in proximity to each other. Ie: Excluded the extreme outliers both high’s and low’s.
We are using those averages for the Above Average Contract.
I did include the maximum in the % fully guaranteed for the “Expensive Contact” option.
So, after all of that nerd stuff, I found the same information for Baker’s contract. We are using the percentage of signing bonus and percentage of fully guaranteed money for the Basic contract. We then applied the above market trends to find an estimate as to what Sam Darnold’s contracts would come out to:
I like using round numbers, so, just real quick, lets round up
I really don’t think Darnold is going to get $40m per year, but I wanted to showcase the “nuclear option” just in case. All of these numbers put Darnold about at the 17th-18th highest paid quarterback in the league. I think we can all agree he is at the very least worth that and in fact, that may put him in the “steal” column with Baker Mayfield. None of this breaks the bank either. Also, quick note, that there is going to be a one-year or two-year out in this.
In terms of cap hit, you’re looking at anywhere from $7m-$10m in cap hit in year one. One of the main reasons you get it that low, is that a smart team would add two void years to spread out the signing bonus equally over five-years.
In terms of cash, you’re looking at roughly $33m-$35m in year one. Now, that all won’t be paid up front, just the signing bonus more than likely, but often times teams are able to skirt not only the escrow rule but sometimes when they pay out the cash for bonuses. Not sure this is a big deal either way, but just wanted it thrown out there.
This should meet the requirements of both what TD and PK reported. Short-term, not $40m options. Also, they should start a podcast called “Initial Reporting”…get it?...INITIAL? PK. TD. I am a marketing genius.
But a lot of reports lately come out that Darnold’s market may even be lower than the $30m range. I find that hard to believe, but I decided to take a look at Geno Smith’s contract and how that would look with the same math above:
Again, let’s round up real quick:
All of these would be no brainer deals for a team looking for a “bridge QB” with upside to be a Baker Mayfield-esque guy. In all of the options above, both Baker/Geno, they’re way lower than what people seem to estimate by-and-large. Could I be wrong? Sure, maybe the Raiders or another desperate team decide to just put their nuts on the table and get wild with it. However, in these newsletters before, using the market trends, as teams and agents do, these usually get real close. Hooker, Byard, Vaccaro, Simmons, Lamar Jackson, etc., I have a good history at being almost right on the nose with those contracts. So, I would be common sense, logic, and market trends, will nail this one as well.
How it Benefits the Titans
Like I laid out above…wins. That is how it ultimately benefits the Titans. They’re trying to do multiple things at once, and these things may seem conflicting, but at the end it’s about the intangibles mostly. They’re trying to rebuild, gain leadership, get younger, trying to be competitive, and establishing a win now culture. That’s a mouthful. Rebuild, competitive, and win now doesn’t seem to go with each other, but they actually do. Same with gain leadership and get younger. Seems conflicting on the surface, but this is the Ron Wolf way.
When Ron Wolf took over the Packers as their General Manager, they were considered a laughingstock franchise. Seems hard to believe, right? But back in the day after the Bart Starr era, this team turned into a joke. Free agents didn’t want to even get near the idea of being a Packer. Wolf changed all of that by establishing many things, but a “win now” attitude. Here’s what he means based on a question he asked one of the most tenured scouts from Vince Lombardi’s days:
“When he [Vince Lombardi] got here, how did he go about trying to the build the Green Bay Packers?” I asked Red.
“He had only one thought, and it carried him through every day,” Red replied. “he wanted to win, and he wanted to do it now. To Vince, anything else but winning today was unacceptable. He felt he was too old to worry about a program. He felt that was counterproductive. You start talking about winning three or four years from now, and all of a sudden, your thinking changes. You aren’t pushing to win as hard and as soon as you should be. He wanted to win right away.”
If you don’t demand immediate results, you’re creating an atmosphere where less than the best is acceptable, where winning is some abstract goal that serves more as a public relations ploy than an actual quest. If you talk about four- and five-year plans, you’ve established an unproductive mentality. It gives everyone an excuse-well, we didn’t meet our quota this month, but it’s our first time under the new system, and you know these things don’t change overnight. Or I didn’t get that contract signed, but we haven’t been making calls on that for long, so give it time and things will change. Or, we fumbled too much in a game, but it’s the first month under our new coach and everything is so new. And by the way, in four years it will be different.
But maybe it won’t be- unless you’re demanding immediate and uncompromising success.
Now, does this mean they went undefeated all the time? No. But when you’re in a rebuild and trying to establish foundational principles, “win now” is a must. You want your players to be competitive. You want your players to be striving for the best. They may not be the fastest or strongest, but dammit, they’re going to fight the hardest. Winning does need to be a part of that though.
I think that is where the real struggles came from last year. They had enough fight. They were somewhat competitive in most games, and they were trying to establish a win now culture. However, quarterback issues plagued them all year long. Sure, other pieces of the game fell apart at times. The defense went missing, special teams fiascos, but above all else, when those things happened, they couldn’t turn to a quarterback efficient offense to try and bail them out.
So, it is hard to establish a winning culture and “win now” mentality without a quarterback. Darnold can provide a bridge between wins/loss and that “win now” attitude, even during a rebuild. As I established earlier, there are a minimum of five games that were losses that his presence could’ve flipped to wins. Again, it isn’t anything to write home about, but it provides you more hope for the future. It provided you with a clear proof of concept that this thing is headed in the right direction.
Not only does it provide you that benefit, but it also provides you the benefit of being able to trade back. Trading back lets you get more picks and get younger. Draft and develop and all of that. The more picks you have the better your chances are at getting real cornerstone players on a cheap contract.
The other thing is, it allows you the flexibility to skip this QB class. The NFl and NFL draft media have been pretty spot on about predicting the quality and depth at certain positions in future drafts. The names of the players at said position may be different, but the quality and the depth remains the same. It is why last year everyone said: “get a QB or OT in this draft class because the quality and quantity won’t be there next year.” Or “If you missed out on a pass rusher, don’t worry, 2025’s class is awesome.” Both things were true and it’s been that way for a while now.
Take EDGE for example, James Pearce was predicted to be the best EDGE Rusher by a lot of people over the summer. Turns out he wasn’t. However, the EDGE class has tons of high end, quality players at the top of the draft. The name of the player changed, but the quality and quantity did not.
Don’t think the QB class next year is highly regarded? It doesn’t matter what you think. The NFL does:
The names may change, someone we aren’t expecting may emerge as QB1, but the point remains, 2026 QB Class is more highly regarded. That matters. Teams are always in three-to-five-year cycles. They have scouted a few of these players already, and they’re looking at maximizing drafts in the future while roster building in the present. It’s just a fact of life.
Sam Darnold’s contract most likely won’t prohibit you from taking a QB in the later rounds of this draft or in the first-round next year. Alex Smith didn’t. Tyrod Taylor for the Bills didn’t. You can always trade up, even if you don’t trade back in 2025. You find a guy you love; you make it work. That’s what teams have done throughout the entire existence of the NFL.
Wrapping-Up
Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders can do a lot of the things that Darnold can do in terms of: being part of establish a “win now” culture. I am not saying that it is Darnold or bust. I break it down into two simple philosophies I have believed from the get-go:
Sam Darnold is not as bad as everyone thinks.
He’s not going to be as expensive as everyone thinks.
I also do not view everything so black-and-white. There’s nuance, you’re not getting Vikings Sam Darnold, but you’re not paying for that version either. Sam Darnold at his best on most teams is Baker Mayfield. That isn’t a bad option for a team struggling to find their future quarterback and he actually doesn’t preclude the Titans forom drafting one next year or the year after.
The Chiefs did it with Alex Smith. The Seahawks and Bucs are doing it right now. The Titans can do it right now. If that is the path they choose. If it isn’t, Cam Ward no matter what. (Even though I am a Shedeur guy)
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Outstanding research, depth and rationale. Nice work, Zach! It would mirror what the Chiefs did, and Darnold would immediately elevate the position.