So, You Want Lamar Jackson? Part 2

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Alright, with rumors circulating the Titans could be in play to make a draft pick trade for the number one spot this weekend, I better get this article out while its relevant.

So, you want Lamar Jackson, eh? Well, what if I told you that it was possible? What if I told you that there is a timeline where everything from the money, the team, and the timing would all work out in the Titans favor? Would you be interested?

I have come up with a scenario, that while both logical and improbable, makes it possible for the Titans to be in the market and trade for Lamar Jackson. Yesterday, I talked about how and why Lamar Jackson has found himself in this predicament. I have also talked all offseason about various free agency terms you need to know.

So, before we go any further this is some of the recommended reading:

·       So, You Want Lamar Jackson? Part 1

·       NFL Free Agency 101

·       NFL Free Agency 201

·       NFL Free Agency 301

Before we discuss anything though, we need to talk about where Lamar Jackson ranks among NFL quarterbacks, and if he is worth what he is demanding to the Tennessee Titans.

Is Lamar Jackson Worth Two 1^st Round Picks, & a Fully Guaranteed Contract?

Yesterday, I talked about the true expense to a team signing Lamar Jackson. I used the fact that he wants a fully guaranteed contract, and near Deshaun Watson money, but kept the number overall less at $200m. That also makes the math a little easier for everyone. It’s likely Jackson wants equal or more to what Watson got.

I then went on to talk about the annual value of a draft pick in the first round using the Falcons as an example who have the 8^th overall pick. Here are the annual contract values for the last five years of first round draft picks:

·       2022 (1.08): $5.38m

·       2021 (1.04): $8.23m

·       2020 (1.16): $3.58m

·       2019 (1.14): $3.68m

·       2019 (1.31): $2.57m

·       2018 (1.26): $2.73m

So, an estimate a quarterback needy team is roughly $5.3m-$5.5m in annual value for that pick. So, now consider that the team trading for Lamar will probably be picking at roughly the middle range of say 17th-24^th. Then your value for each draft pick looks like this:

·       2023 Draft Pick Value: ~$5.3m

·       2024 Draft Pick Value: ~$4.36m

Comes out to a $9.66m value per year for the picks you’re giving up. You got $50m per year in Jackson’s value + $40.34m in lost value. So, you’re costing yourself roughly $90.34 million dollars a year, at a minimum! So, is Lamar Jackson worth all that a team has to give up to meet his current demands?

Absolutely not. Jackson is great, but he is not a fully guaranteed contact level talent. To be fair to Jackson, I would say that 99.9% of players are not worth a fully guaranteed contract. That 96.875% of active players in the NFL are not worth a fully guaranteed contract. That 3.125% is for Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, they are the only two players I would consider signing to a fully guaranteed contract.

I’ve said it before, Lamar Jackson isn’t an elite quarterback. Here’s how I know he is not an elite quarterback: All the excuses made for him by saying he doesn’t have anyone around him. Let me explain how I view the term elite and how it ties into what I just said.

I don’t use the term elite in the watered-down version everyone else uses it. Jordan Schultz a few weeks ago called Miles Sanders elite, and he is heading to free agency. Get a grip. Also, if you’re not elite, it doesn’t mean you aren’t awesome or great, it just means you aren’t at the top two or three at your position. The top 1%.

Jackson had a fantastic MVP year. We are about to be four seasons removed from that. There’s a distinction in being an Elite QB and a MVP QB. He isn’t a perennial MVP quarterback like Tom Brady, Mahomes, or Peyton Manning. He’s just a guy who had one fantastic year. He has not displayed that same level of talent since. Remember, two years earlier that Carson Wentz before injury was the leading candidate to win MVP.

For me, that MVP award doesn’t matter to the discussion because there have been three full seasons since he won that award, and two were cut short due to injury. Look, I do think the criticism of what was built around Jackson is fair. I am also of the opinion that Greg Roman didn’t do enough as an offensive coordinator.

So, that’s all fair and true, but if he can’t elevate those around him, he cannot be elite. Patrick Mahomes, in my opinion, is the only truly elite quarterback in the current NFL. I think Burrow probably is, but hard to gauge with all those pass catching weapons, but he’s been able to overcome horrible offensive lines. Rodgers was elite. Brady was elite. Burrow is on his way to being elite. Mahomes is elite.

Jackson has shown flashes of being a guy with elite traits and elite performances, they’re just not consistently there week in and week out. So, where does he rank for me? He’s roughly a top-10 quarterback, with top-5 upside, but even if he makes it up to that, it’s likely because the surroundings boosted him into the area. Now, I said likely, because we do not know who Jackson is in a system that is not so heavily dedicated to the run. 

The other issue for Jackson is going to be his health. His health has prevented him from finishing the last two seasons and his team desperately need4ed him on the field. He is definitely MVP for the Ravens and would be the MVP for most teams he’s on, but that is just the nature of the quarterback.

So, as it stands in regard to his current contract demands, Lamar Jackson is not worth what you have to give up. However, what if he decides to do away with a fully guaranteed contract demand?

Lamar Jackson: The Non-Fully Guaranteed Contract

I don’t like to throw around the word genius around too often, but I have come up with a genius contract that not only benefits the Tennessee Titans, but also benefits Lamar Jackson. First, let’s breakdown the last reports about the Ravens contract offer.