Ryan Tannehill vs Aaron Rodgers

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The Ryan Tannehill Vs… series has finally reached Aaron Rodgers day. Braden Gall and I talked yesterday on A Football Show about Aaron Rodgers. We didn’t really go deep with the on the field performance and scheme fit, but more-so about the money and personality fit.

This particular newsletter is kind of going to be all over the map, because after looking at everything, I am truly conflicted about who is best for the Titans. There are just so many angles on this that I think I could sit down and do an entire podcast on Aaron Rodgers vs Ryan Tannehill and the future of the Titans with both. That is how conflicted I am.

So let me start with the first nagging question in the back of my head.

Is This a Repeat of 2020 Tom Brady?

When Brady entered free agency initially, I was of the opinion that he was going to Tampa Bay. They had the better defense, better weapons, and better head coach. All they needed was a quarterback who didn’t turn the ball over 30+ times in a season.

I also argued that paying Tannehill makes more sense because Brady was on an obvious decline. So, I went 50% with my offseason Brady takes. Brady clearly spent the next three seasons saying screw your decline and got a Super Bowl.

Let’s be clear. Brady would not have won a Super Bowl with the Titans in 2020. The defense here was horrible, and he had to get carried through parts of the playoffs by the Tampa Bay defense. So, while Brady would’ve been better from 2020-2022, I doubt it would’ve resulted in a Super Bowl in 2021 or 2022. Definitely wouldn’t have in 2020.

So, here we are with another Hall of Fame, best of his era, quarterback possibly hitting the free agent market, and it feels like deja vu all over again. The Titans have a better defense in 2020, but a way worse situation on the offensive side of the ball. So, I am sitting here left wondering, is Rodgers just truly burnt out in Green Bay, and needs a new challenge in his life?

Rodgers is coming off one of his worst seasons. He looked frustrated, old, and just kind of not there mentally on the field. He refused to truly teach his young roster of pass catchers in the offseason and seems to only be happy when he’s beating the Bears or on The Pat McAfee Show. It kind of reminds me of Brady in some ways.

Towards the end of his time in New England, Brady just seemed to be in a tough spot. He is a much bigger, better competitor than Rodgers so while the frustrations showed, he was still fighting to win. Brady and Belichick were on the skids it seemed. Rodgers and LaFleur definitely aren’t best buds. So, is this a change of scenery kind of deal?

Rodgers is a very sensitive, emotional person. That’s not a bad thing, but his sensitive temperament maybe led him to just giving up on things being great for him in Green Bay and caused him to check-out. So, maybe he thinks he needs a change of scenery to find that new motivation along with better weather.

The problem is, at any point, Rodgers could choose to retire if he doesn’t find that passion and fire for football again. So, if you’re a general manager; how do you balance the what if he’s Brady and we get a Super Bowl with that looming sense of inevitable doom?

Ryan Tannehill vs Aaron Rodgers: The Value

I feel I have to hammer this home every article, and it gets repetitive, but here is what you need to know about Ryan Tannehill’s contract situation.

The Titans are currently on the hook for $36.6m in cap hit due to the Julio Jones trade in 2021 and restructuring of Tannehill’s contract. According to OverTheCap.com, extending Tannehill can create up to $20.668m in cap space in 2023. Below is an example of how extending Tannehill with a short-term contract can create immediate cap space in the amount of $16.068 million.

So, we know what a Tannehill extension looks like. We know that when we compared his extension to whatever quarterback the Titans may acquire, that we need to take into account $17.8m dead cap hit for Tannehill + new QB’s 2023 cap hit = Actual Value of New QB in 2023.

So, let’s look at the contract that the Titans take on if they were to trade for Aaron Rodgers:

Now, before I go into details, Rodgers did go on The Pat McAfee Show and talked about teams being cash strapped, and how he may have to rework his contract for a new team. That’s great in theory, but we need to look at the facts, because we all know Rodgers can change his mind at any given point.