My Only Titans Final-53 Roster Prediction

All the preseason games have concluded and today you get my only prediction article about the Titans Final-53 man roster.

Aug 26, 2023

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IDoing final rosters is a great litmus test for the media. While most are never held accountable for their predictions, I always keep up with what I got right and wrong.

Last year, I got 49 correct, knowing I would have a massive risk by saying the Titans would keep both punters. Sometimes, you swing and miss; I did that on that prediction.

I don't have a prediction as big and bold as that, but I already know after looking at a few others; that I vary slightly from the majority.

Essential Things to Keep In Mind

Yesterday, I talked about how *if* Caleb Murphy was cut, he would have no problem clearing waivers. There is NFL logic behind this, and it is not an indictment of Murphy. Here's what you need to know:

The NFL used to have two to three cutdown dates. Now, they only have one. This means that across the league, 1,184 players will be cut.
On average, in the last two seasons, the total number of players cut that was claimed off waivers by any team comes out to 30.5.
- Less than one player per team on average
This number will likely go up because of the one cutdown date, but it shows the trend that if a player is cut, they have an extremely high chance of clearing waivers.
There is a difference between cut and released:
Cut: A cut or waived player is considered a non-vested veteran. They are subject to the waiver wire.
A non-vested veteran: a player with less than four accrued seasons.
- Accrued seasons: A season in which he was on, or should have been, full pay status for six or more regular season games.
If a cut/waived player is claimed off waivers, they must go on the claiming team's final-53 roster.
- They can't claim them and immediately put them on the practice squad.
Released: These are vested veterans and are not subject to the waiver wire process.
- This means they can be signed immediately for whichever spot.

Something else to remember that isn't truly defined by anything: familiarity. As I said above, if a player is claimed off the waiver wire, they must go on the final 53-man roster for the team that claimed them. This is where familiarity comes into play.

Teams are not likely to take a chance on a player who needs to be better (relatively speaking) to make his original squad and doesn't have proven experience. The hierarchy of players that are cut/released at this time is like this:

First Consideration: Vested Veterans.
Second Consideration: Non-vested Veterans with experience.
Third Consideration: Non-vested veterans that have little to no experience.

I want to detail/explain that when building a final 53-man roster, rookie UDFAs are likely to get the shaft. In fact, over the last two seasons, players with 0 accrued seasons and 0 games active only made up 24.6% (15 out of 61) of waiver claims. This doesn't just include rookie UDFAs; it also includes veterans who have bounced around and never caught on.

Here are the average active seasons on a roster and average games active for players that were claimed:

2022: 1.5 avg. seasons active | 15 avg. games active
2021: 1 avg. seasons active | 10 avg. games active

It's easier with experience to break onto a 53-man roster from waivers for inexperienced players. That is why most practice squads are filled with players you immediately recognize from training camp. Risk is way overrated, and familiarity is a helluva drug. It's a bad combination if you're a rookie UDFA typically (hoping to be claimed)

There is an unfortunate theme of picking a 53-man roster. At the same time, some players are good or deserving of a chance to make the cut; lack of depth or injuries at other positions sometimes force a team to make hard decisions.

Also, keep in mind the first iteration of this final-53 is, in fact, not final. It is fluid. Many of these guys that get cut will likely be re-signed because other transactions happened. This is why this exercise, while fun, is pointless because it can be made irrelevant reasonably quickly.

Quarterbacks (3)

Starter: Ryan Tannehill
QB2 for Now: Malik Willis
QB3: Will Levis

Many people will just put three quarterbacks and be done with their prediction. Much like Malik Willis, sometimes I like to make the easy things a little harder on myself. So, I will also list who gets each spot on the depth chart.

The uncertainty surrounding Will Levis's injury will put Willis ahead of the rookie quarterback. On top of that, Vrabel has always stated you have to earn your spot, and while it wasn't always pretty, Willis has shown enough to earn and keep the primary backup quarterback spot while Levis heals up.

When Levis is healthy, he will overtake Willis as the primary backup to Ryan Tannehill. On the latest Football & Other F Words episode, we talked about how Levis would be the immediate starter if Tannehill were to go out of a game for any extended period. Willis is just a fill-in for the first few weeks and then will be the likely primary backup in 2024.

If Levis were to be the guy he was drafted to be, the Titans are in good hands going into 2024. However, if his development behind the scenes goes as slow or slower as Willis's did last year…we are either in for the grossest starting QB competition ever or another year of Tannehill.

Pick your poison.

Running Backs (3)

Thunder: Derrick Henry
Lightning: Tyjae Spears
Earthquake: Julius Chestnut

So Long & Happily Forgotten: Hassan Haskins

Nous vous connaissions à peine: Jacques Patrick

Here's the first place I am diverging from some of the other masses: the Titans only keep three running backs, and those three do not include Hassan Haskins.

Let's put the alleged charges to the side. Haskins has been injured, and ultimately, he brings nothing to the offensive side of the ball. While he does have special teams value, that is where it ends for Haskins's contributions to this football team.

If you're going to be known as a special teams ace, you need to bring something to your unit at least (offense/defense) if your number is called due to injury. He doesn't. In fact, out of the running backs on the roster, he was the fifth-best. Every running back showed out while he was on the sidelines.

Now, take his lack of contributions outside of special teams, add in his injury, and add in his alleged charges; there is no reason to keep someone with that kind of baggage. You have players who can do what he does and contribute to their respective units, are healthy, and don't have alleged charges hanging over their head.

If I were to get anything wrong, it is that they keep Patrick on the 53. My chances of being in danger of being wrong about Haskins are much lower.

Wide Receivers (6)

Alpha Dog: DeAndre Hopkins
Hunting Dog: Treylon Burks
The Retriever: Kyle Philips
The Stray: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
The Emotional Support Dog: Chris Moore
The Pup: Kearis Jackson

The Dog Pound: Colton Dowell | Mason Kinsey | Tre'Shaun Harrison

Given Up for Adoption: Reggie Roberson, Jr. | Gavin Holmes

Old Yeller'd: Racey McMath

I really struggled with this one. At one point, I was convinced they were only keeping the first five wide receivers I have listed. Obviously, someone would get the call-up while Philips was out or put on IR. Then, I watched the preseason finale and changed my line of thinking.

All week, I have complained about them using Philips as a returner. It makes sense upon his return to already have a returner on the roster who could also contribute to the offense if needed. Right now, Moore is your "Philips replacement".

Kinsey wasn't given hardly any return duty, and I have talked ad nauseam about how this team has shown they'll call up or sign up anyone over him. This continues.

While Dowell had an excellent final week of camp and put it all together in a game for the Titans in the finale, he can be placed on the practice squad. Dowell and Kinsey will be prime candidates for weekly call-ups to the active roster until the wide receiver unit is at full strength. Tre'Shaun Harrison has done enough in games and practices to keep building on his momentum on the practice squad.

If you love something, set it free. It is time to take those words to heart and to let the dream of Reggie Roberson go. Be free, my young friend. Roam the NFL countryside looking for your new home.

Not much to say about Gavin Holmes. It seemed like a good dude.

Finally, the Titans are putting McMath out to pasture. I hope he slides his way onto someone else's team and finds success in some form or fashion, but I am happy the experiment here is over.

Tight Ends (5)

The Blocker: Trevon Wesco
The Phenom: Chig Okonkwo
The Rookie: Josh Whyle
The Scrapper: Thomas Odukoya
The Fullback: Alize Mack

The Practice Squad: Kevin Rader

The Forgotten: Justin Rigg

This is the Danger Zone for my roster prediction. Not only can I be wrong about the number of tight ends they keep, but I also have a high chance of being wrong about who they keep.

I forgot Justin Rigg was even on the team. I never heard his name or noticed him from camp reports or TV Broadcasts. Kevin Rader is the guy that can be swapped in for either of the last three. He is a mainstay that is held in high regard by the staff, and sometimes that matters.

They feel they can rely on him if his name is called. So, there is a good chance I will be wrong about him not being the 4th tight end. Through two preseason games, he has played the 6th most special team snaps and had seven more than any other tight end on the roster—that and his reliability count for something.

However, by constantly using Mack as a fullback this preseason, they're trying to convert him or find a spot for him. Odukoya is interesting. He could be more dynamic regarding the receiving game, but is a helluva blocker. He and Rader are the next guys up if Wesco were to be injured, but Odukoya is a more violent and stronger blocker than Rader.

A strategy is involved here, though: Odukoya is an International Player. That will happen if the Titans feel strongly that they can get him on the practice squad. He can be on the practice squad without counting toward the practice squad total. This means that they can keep him plus another player because he is an international player on the practice squad.

That is why I am not confident that Odukoya will make the initial 53, but he has earned over a guy like Rader this offseason.

Offensive Lineman (8)

LT: Andre Dillard
LG: Peter Skoronski
C: Aaron Brewer
RG: Daniel Brunskill
RT(a): Chris Hubbard
RT(b): Justin Murray
Earned it: Xavier Newman
Experience: Corey Levin

Suspended Immediately & Doesn't Count: Nicholas Petit-Frere

Right On the Line: Jordan Roos | Jaelyn Duncan | Andrew Rupcich

Outside the Lines: John Ojukwu | Jimmy Murray | John Leglue | Zack Johnson

This was tough because several back-ups made an excellent case to make the 53, but ultimately, Hubbard and Murray can play multiple spots, and Newman and Levin provide flexibility. So, they all get the spots.

Duncan's health and inability to catch on quickly leave him just outside the possibility. Roos and Rupcich have performed very well, and Roos even played in stretches last year, but by the way, the depth chart shook out last night, and Newman and Murray made the cut.

They could keep nine, but with NPF returning and the versatility of those kept, they can avoid taking up so many roster spots on the initial 53. I could see Roos being the wild card in all of this.

Duncan will get plenty of reps and time to develop on the practice squad, which is excellent for him. He did show flashes of the athlete he can be, but he didn't do enough to earn a spot, and we all know draft status ultimately doesn't matter to Vrabel.

Total Offensive Players: 25

Defensive Line (5)

The All-Pro: Jeffery Simmons
The Fighter: Teair Tart
The Pterodactyl: Jayden Peevy
The New Guy: Michael Dwumfour
The Honorary Herndon Brother: Kyle Peko

The Injured: Naquan Jones

It's Not Goodbye: Jaleel Johnson | Tyler Shelvin | Trevon Coley | TK McClendon Jr | Shakel Brown

Don't worry about not seeing Denico Autry's name. I didn't forget about him. As much as I was worried about the TE prediction, I am just slightly less concerned about this one. This feels very light when looking at it, but it is also a very potent foursome.

What worries me the most is that when Mike and I disagree on something this offseason, he has yet to be correct. Kyle Peko could be the streak-ender for Mike, and I will side with him on this one at the last minute. I initially had just four, but I returned and decided to put him on after cutting someone else at another spot.

This is a prime example of what I said earlier about there being a theme of picking a 53-man roster. At the same time, some players are good or deserving of a chance to make the cut; lack of depth or injuries at other positions sometimes force a team to make hard decisions. I put this in bold so you would remember when I get to EDGE rushers.

Ultimately, many of these guys can make the practice squad and likely will find themselves on the 53-man roster at some point. Hell, this could only be temporary for them for a day or two.

Hybrid Defenders (2)

EDGE/DL: Denico Autry
CB/Safety: Elijah Molden

I cheated a little. I created an entirely new roster spot for the final roster. I wanted to emphasize showing that Autry and Molden technically count towards the roster totals of two spots. The DL looks thin, but ultimately, Autry counts there, but he also counts towards the EDGE position as well. As you can read, Molden is the same but for CB and Safety.

This allows the Titans flexibility in handling their numbers at those spots and other spots.

Outside Linebacker (4)

He's Back: Harold Landry
He's Him: Arden Key
He's Progressing: Rashad Weaver
He's Okay: Sam Okuayinonu

He's Talented: Caleb Murphy

He's Practice Squad: Thomas Rush

Is he on the Team?: Zach McCloud

It was a challenging debate between myself and me on the fate of Caleb Murphy. Yesterday, I said that *if* he were cut, that he would clear. I would be shocked if any cuttable player off this Titans roster wouldn't clear waivers.

Two people on X told me that "there's a lot more riding on it if the Titans are wrong" regarding keeping Murphy. I was told it was blatantly false to say that there's very little riding on the 5th/6th string edge rusher (depending on how you view Autry.)

So, I know this will be a very unpopular opinion, and it took me a while to settle on it, but I do not think Caleb Murphy will make this roster. I think the deck is stacked against him in two ways:

He's a rookie UDFA.
Roster spots are needed elsewhere.

What Murphy did this preseason was outstanding. I like Murphy as a player; he also has a great story. He ended up with four sacks over three games, according to ESPN. Anenih had three this time last year, and we all saw how that went down.

Ultimately, you have to look at the quality of sacks. In the one sack he had last night, the ball was held for close to six seconds, and all of his sacks have been against backups of backups.

This team may not be willing to risk a spot on the final 53 on a guy who may not be ready to produce in a game. To use a spot to play keep away is not how intelligent teams construct immediately competitive rosters.

If he is indeed cut, there is a chance both the Titans and myself could be wrong about another team putting in a claim for him. No one did it for the other beloved UDFA edge rushers before him, but maybe this is the one. However, we will know if that was a mistake years into his career.

Everyone thought it would be a massive mistake for the Titans when the Steelers claimed from the Titans practice squad Anenih a few weeks after initial cutbacks, and he amounted to 0 games and 0 stats. The likelihood of UDFAs turning into this massive missed mistake for teams is slim.

Since 2010, 261 UDFAs have played in a regular season game at the DE/OLB spot. Twenty-two of those have earned 10+ career sacks. Derrick Shelby was number 22 with ten career sacks and played six seasons in the NFL.

Maybe everyone is right, and Murphy turns into Shaq Barrett or Michael Bennett, but the numbers suggest that is the suitable risk to take if you need spots elsewhere.

Murphy has a good chance of developing into something similar to the career arc we've seen with Teair Tart. Tart was cut and went unclaimed. The Titans put him on the practice squad and developed him. He was raw as well but in a different aspect of the game. He worked hard, eventually got called up that same season, and look at him now.

One of the things the Titans always preach is about what a player is doing when he's not the play's focal point. Is a wide receiver selling the passing, and are they blocking? Did the offensive lineman find work if freed up to do so?

For an EDGE rusher, what is he doing if the play is on the other side of the field? Is he covering or working to get to his guy? If you only look at the four plays where Murphy got a sack and say, See, he's great; what about all of the other snaps he's logged? What did he do on special teams?

It's a lot to expect a fan to notice; even for media, that is a lot. However, the team does, which is why they will be more comfortable with Sam Okuayinonu. He does everything that needs to be done the way they want it. He knows his role and his responsibility. Kind of like a Ola Adeniyi. Remember, he logged over 100 snaps for them last season in a rotational role when needed. That carries weight with the Titans.

I know this is a long section, but I feel this needs to be thoroughly explained so people know a few things:

I love Caleb Murphy's upside. If he gets the spot, he absolutely earned it.
It is best to develop him on the practice squad; that way, the Titans aren't sacrificing a roster spot.
The data says letting him hit waivers is a smart, calculated risk.
If he were to be claimed, it is not an immediate mistake.
Also, it's unlikely it will be a mistake later on down the road.
There is very little riding on this decision.

Apologies to Thomas Rush and Zach McCloud, who didn't get any air time.

Inside Linebacker (5)

The Man: Azeez Al-Shaair
The Flip Cup Boys:
- Chad #1: Jack Gibbens
- Chad #2: Chance Campbell
- Chad #3: Ben Niemann
- Chad #4: Luke Gifford

Coaching Staff Favorite: Otis Reese IV

Racey McMath, a.k.a Dez Fitzpatrick'd: Monty Rice

I have joked all off-season, but the Crackerjacks, a.k.a. The Flip Cup Boys, are all just the same guy. None of them did anything to differentiate themselves from the others. We should see a lot of roster churning once cuts are all finalized at this second inside linebacker spot because they need it.

Look, Vrabel can get 2-4 quality games from his random inside linebackers, and technically, that'd equal out to 16 games from the four of them, but Al-Shaiir has to stay healthy. That's a big question mark. They need to find depth and find it fast.

I wrote and have talked about Monty Rice all offseason long as well. I never had faith in him since he was drafted, and injuries and what seems to be questionable effort or focus have caught up to him. Out of all the guys possibly cut, I could see a team claiming him.

According to Rhett Bryan, Otis Reese seems to be a coaching staff favorite, but that's only enough for the practice squad this year. We will see him in action soon with how this position group is shaping up.

Cornerbacks (5)

Fulton County Lock-up: Kristian Fulton
Not Bunting on the Season: Sean Murphy-Bunting
86'ed the Beans: Roger McCreary
Sticking Around: Tre Avery
2023 Tre Avery: Eric Garror

Did Everything Right: Anthony Kendall | Armani Marsh | Steven Jones, Jr

Just Not Quite: Alonzo Davis

One of my biggest surprises was how well the depth stepped up when they were on the field. It's probably due to a great pass rush, but that is okay; almost every player in this position group had some good, consistent moments.

Garror gets the nod. With him and Molden playing similar spots, Garror's edge comes with his ability to return kicks and play special teams coverage. Marsh stood out to me in the Patriots game in back-to-back plays, and I think the Titans are in a good spot if they need one or two of these guys to step in and play critical roles.

At the outset, everyone said this group had surprising depth, but was it any good? The offseason, in its entirety, says there is a positive trend to that being: Yeah, they're pretty good. (Editor's Note: Build Chris Harris's statue now)

Safeties (4)

The Old Man: Kevin Byard
The Wild Card: Amani Hooker
My Guy: Shyheim Carter
The Vet: Mike Brown

So Close: Josh Thompson

Could be Something There: Matthew Jackson

Early Buzz, but Faded: Tyreque Jones

I feel outside of special teams, this is the easiest to predict on the defensive side of the ball. This, of course, means I am likely wrong, but I feel the two back-ups easily earned their way onto the roster.

I think, kind of like last year, we may see the other three in certain games depending on injuries and opponents, but in the end, they didn't make a big enough mark to make it on this team.

Total Defensive Players: 25

Special Teams (3)

Kicker: Michael Badgley
Punter: Ryan Stonehouse
LS: Morgan Cox

All pretty duh things for now. Based on comments after practice and the game, Michael Badgley doesn't take his job too seriously. He will be replaced relatively quickly, but after all the cuts, he makes the initial 53 for now.

Practice Squad (16)

Caleb Murphy
Mason Kinsey
Colton Dowell
Tre'Shaun Harrison
Jacques Patrick
Kevin Rader
Jordan Roos
Jaelyn Duncan
Andrew Rupcich
Otis Reese IV
Anthony Kendall
Armani Marsh
Matthew Jackson
Jaleel Johnson
Trevon Coley
Thomas Rush

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