[FREE] Should the Titans Go "All In" on Calvin Ridley?
The free agent wide receiver wants to get paid like a WR1. Should the Titans go all in?
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So I have some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that free agency begins next Wednesday at 4 PM EST. That means the league can start wheelin’ and dealin’, shoveling out cash to free agents to be, carrying some optimism while ignoring any potential of their deals somehow going totally haywire.
Not that teams care in the slightest, but who cares at the end of the day, it’s their money not ours.
It’s not like that money connects directly with our happiness and mental stability during the upcoming fall and winter right? Aha, right?
Ahem…anyways, onto the bad news.
The bad news is that the free agent wide receiver market is going to be as barren as the Sahara Desert. Nobody, and I mean nooooobody notable, is scheduled to hit the open market as someone free to sign with any team for X amount of dollars.
Some slightly better news is that we expected this, since we knew the franchise tag would swoop in and steal all the potential fun away from us.
But it still stings knowing whatever receiver you go out there and get next week, probably won’t be the big time difference maker you want.
So uh, sorry about that.
Speaking of sorry, we might have to give our apologies to the Titans, who’ll have to scavenge through the market if they want to bring in a free agent receiver that could realistically make a difference in 2024 and potentially beyond. It’s a shame, considering their dire receiver situation and the overall amount of needs this roster has in itself.
Finding a quick, veteran fix at receiver is ideal, more so on the impact side of things. Maybe not contractually, but you get the idea.
However, the Titans’ scavenge might not have to be a bargain bin hunting type affair at all, especially if they set their eyes on one receiver — one that has proven to be a real threat over the course of his career….more times than not — that is scheduled to hit the market after his previous team declined to slap the franchise tag on him.
Who is that receiver? Well, it’s none other than Calvin Ridley, the former Atlanta Falcon and Jacksonville Jaguar.
Should the Titans even be interested in his services? And if so, just how far could they go financially to bring Ridley in?
We’ll discuss that and a bit more, so let’s dive in.
The Case FOR Going All In on Calvin Ridley
To put it quite simply, bringing in Ridley would give the Titans another difference maker at a position that quite frankly, had just one in 2023.
DeAndre Hopkins was the only receiver with a pulse that amounted to anything last season. Which was expected, given his prior statistical output regardless of who has been throwing him the football.
Everybody else behind him? Zip, zilch, nada.
Treylon Burks was once again an injury plagued mess with inconsistency issues to top it all off. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was thrusted into action more than necessary, while also showing that he’s still not the difference maker this group needs. Kyle Phillips had some shining moments during Will Levis’ first few starts, but he was thrown into a locker and shunned away like a red-headed stepchild because of his lack of impact on…special teams.
Everyone else either got hurt or was ineffective.
The only shining light outside of Hopkins was Chris Moore, who stepped up even when he was given more snaps than expected.
Just these statements alone and then some, make Ridley’s signing even more worth it by the second. But that isn’t how the game is played around here, so let’s get into some more detailed feats to make this potential signing worth it.
For starters, Ridley was still a productive receiver in 2023, even after missing nearly two seasons. He was still the most reliable traditional receiving threat on the outside for the Jaguars, despite Christian Kirk commanding attention from the other side and Evan Engram putting in a near 1,000 yard season of his own.
Jaguars Receiving Leaders in 2023 (By Yardage)
Calvin Ridley: 1,016
Evan Engram: 963
Christian Kirk: 787
At season's end, some were a bit put off by his yardage total, given his highly publicized heavy role in the offense and him becoming Trevor Lawrence’s go-to target for much of the season.
But I push back against those due to a few factors that went against Ridley.
One was the fact that there was a bit of an early season transition period for Ridley, as he was just getting back into football after nearly 2 seasons away from the game. Another was the developing relationship between Ridley and Trevor Lawrence, as they both needed ample game time to get their connection humming on its own. Third, Jacksonville’s offense went through some tough times during the stretch run in 2023, mostly due to Lawrence suffering and playing through a painful high ankle sprain.
The last one is connected to some drop issues for Ridley. He dropped 4 passes over the first 3 weeks of the season, then followed that up with 3 more drops over his final 7 games of the season.
4 early season drops can be alluded to a lack of concentration, maybe not the 3 over the last 7 games. But 3 drops out of 63 total targets 9 (total number of targets over his last 7 games) shouldn’t alarm you either way, unless you’re some massive pessimist.
Which I hope you aren’t, don’t be like me.
Either way, the drop “problem” per say isn’t really a problem in my opinion.
A bonus factor is his route and positional allotment last season, which was pretty much all over the place.
Per PFF, Ridley had 826 wide or boundary snaps, in comparison to his meager 166 snaps in the slot. Also, Ridley didn’t hit double digit snaps in a game from the slot until Week 11.
I’ll explain since all the numbers might be confusing. Ridley is at his best when he’s able to be moved around in different spots on the field, whether that’s on the outside as a traditional X receiver, or in the slot.
Doing so allows Ridley to use his route technicality to win in multiple areas, thus giving your offense more freedom and flow in terms of play calling versatility. It also gives your other weapons more room to operate, as evidence by Ridley’s addition opening up room for other Falcons playmakers during his first and second seasons in 2018 and 2019.
Taking away that freedom for whatever reason, limits what Ridley can do, therefore reducing the total impact of your offense as a whole. Why did the Jaguars do it? Who knows, maybe they had the bright idea of leaving Christian Kirk to the slot duties, while rolling out Ridley as a traditional boundary receiver, but in more of a full time role?
Who knows, I’m not one to guess.
Either way, it was a weird move that limited that impacted Ridley’s production.
Leaving that aside, Ridley is still doing the one thing that receivers are ultimately paid to do aside from catching the football.
And that’s simply getting open.
If you don’t take my word for it, take Matt Harmon’s win chart for Ridley on Reception Perception.
As you can see, Ridley is still a pretty effective three level route winner. It’d be one thing if Ridley had problems winning in one or even two levels of the field, especially if teams are reportedly interested in giving him WR1 money — more on that later.
But Ridley can still win at all 3 levels, giving his next team a route savant that can make life easier for his play caller and quarterback.
With all this being said, I don’t understand why WR needy teams would be hesitant on going after Ridley. He can still win in multiple route aspects, he still has the juice to even play a bit of a deep threat role, and he’s proven he can still produce even during chaotic circumstances like injuries to quarterbacks and system dysfunction.
All that sounds like a good subject to chase, in my opinion. But as always, the best things always come with some downsides, and it’s no different in Ridley’s case.
The Case FOR NOT Going All In on Calvin Ridley
The most compelling case for the Titans to not go all in on Ridley, is the fact that he’s set to get paid a hefty amount of money.
At least based on reports and the expected market shortage for receivers.
Ridley is expected to be the only receiver of substance on the open market next week, which therefore increases the case old term that has led to numerous overpays and instant feelings of regret.
Leverage.
Ridley put up good enough numbers last season, to garner a respectable amount of money from teams that desperately need receiver help. Maybe not WR1 money, but money decent enough.
But with more leverage involved, plus the numbers, and you can expect that payday to rise to potential WR1 numbers by the time his free agency is set and done. The Titans shouldn’t be expected to dish out millions of dollars for an incomplete product in terms of proven production, at least in the way of WR1 production.
They’re in a delicate spot cap wise, but as told last week, that doesn’t mean they should go crazy with the checkbook just for the sake of it.
Ridley is one of those cases where you could go a teensy bit crazy, but only on the Titans’ terms, not the ones that’ll be set once Ridley’s market heats up next week.
Spotrac has his market value at $17.5M a year, which is about $500k short of Christian Kirk’s $18M a year. Those numbers are just for show, given cap hits don’t account for AAV year to year.
But it’s a figure worth keeping in mind.
Other than that, I don’t have any other reasons as to why the Titans shouldn’t really go all in on Ridley. He’s still 29 and has shown zero signs of slowing down and rolling off the perpetual cliff.
But these things are usually settled by dollars and cents, which could turn the Titans off completely if the situation gets a little too expensive.
Overview
If anything, going after Ridley could open up a multitude of possibilities for the remainder of their off-season plans. Especially in the draft, where they’d have a lot more possible routes.
But all of that is dependent on if they truly go after and acquire the service of Calvin Ridley.
Will the Titans do just that? It remains to be seen, but the argument for and against going after him has been laid out, it’s more so if the Titans agree on one route or the other and act accordingly.
Free agency just can’t get here soon enough, can it?
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