[FREE] Finding a Balanced Offense with DeAndre Hopkins
How does the Tennessee Titans find itself the correct run/pass balance to satisfy their new wide receiver and their star running back?
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From Mike Mularkey’s dynamic attack led by DeMarco Murray, to Mike Vrabel’s historic running game led by Derrick Henry, there’s been no shortage of run oriented football from the Titans over the last half decade and some change.
For the most part, the decision to reform this team back into its historical norm has paid off handsomely. They’ve been able to accelerate a rebuild after a couple years of being a league doormat and they’ve also been able to attract numerous eyes around the league due to the sole reliance on their own anomaly, Derrick Henry.
However, the biggest advantage they’ve gained is their ability to be more balanced offensively.
Ever since the aerial revolution within the league, some overanxious teams have tried their damndest to get ahead of the curve by finding a shiny new quarterback, a superstar receiver, and an innovative play caller to create the league’s next big thing.
Some have succeeded — Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Miami when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy in 2022, etc. — some have found mixed results due to not having all three pieces mentioned above — Houston during the Deshaun Watson days, the current Chargers with Justin Herbert, the 2022 Lions (Jared Goff isn’t the next big, young star at quarterback is he?), Cleveland in 2020, etc. — and some have outright failed miserably — the 2021 and 2022 New York Jets, the 2021 Bears, etc.
The ones who’ve found success, have obviously been able to make their mark on the league and have remained in the national conversation since the inception of their success. But despite that success, most of these examples have failed to find the legendary offensive balance that a lot of play callers want.
The only one that has found success with this formula is Cincinnati, who’ve maintained a respectable rushing attack even with the abundance of weapons in the passing game.
Now despite not having that balance, most of the success stories have fielded some impressive results, like Kansas City and Buffalo. But a lot of these pass happy teams have desired some form of balance, just so their preferred way of offense can find it easier more times than not.
Which is why the Titans’ ability to stay balanced offensively remains impressive to this day. It hasn’t all been sunshine and rainbows with this method, but it’s still given them an opportunity to make opponents second guess themselves.
Although their method of getting to this balance has been questionable more times than not — play calling flow, predictability, you know the usual — so once again, it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows.
Looking ahead to 2023, the Titans should be aiming towards the same balance they’ve accomplished in the past, or at least that’s what we thought initially.
With Deandre Hopkins now joining the fold, you begin to wonder just how much importance the Titans will place on balance. Will they stick to their guns? Or will other factors play a part in changing the Titans’ most comfortable philosophical mainstay on offense?
We don’t know the answer, but maybe a couple of clues can help us find it.
Titans Run/Pass Ratios
We can’t discuss balance without talking about the Titans’ run/pass ratios first.
Ever since Derrick Henry became the full time starter in 2019, the Titans have remained one of the most balanced offenses in the entire league.
Since that famous 2019 season, the Titans haven’t finished with a passing play percentage over 51%.
To put it into more perspective, the Titans’ pass pkay percentage by year goes like this:
2019: 51.21%
2020: 49.72% (surprising to be honest)
2021: 51.22%
2022: 50.91%
That’s an unsurprising figure, considering the Titans have been enriched in run based offensive football for quite some time now. But it’s still a little surprising to see that number hover around average when you look at the 2020 season, when the Titans had a top 5 offense in all of football and could simply run efficient play action without overwhelming success from their run game.
I guess you have to tip your cap to Arthur Smith, who seemed like a genius during his time in Tennessee.
Now these sets of numbers aren’t the main course, they’re just a piece of introductory evidence that’ll be used as reference from now on.
What we really need to focus on, is the Titans roster makeup, as well as the influence of a certain new offensive coordinator in Tennessee.
The Titans’ new O-Line Project
One of the big reasons why the Titans’ balance will come into question this season, is how different their offensive line group is in comparison to past groups.
In the past, the Titans have banked on mauling offensive lineman with high motors and the ability to simply bulldoze opposing defenses out of the way. That’s fine and all if you want to play the football the Titans want to play, but if you want to throw the ball more than advertised, you’re going to run into some problems.
The Titans have been plagued by those problems over the last few seasons, as they’ve ranked inside the top 7 in terms of sacks allowed every year since 2019, with the only exception being the 2020 season. Which ironically was the Titans’ best year offensively during their recent stretch of winning seasons, except for 2022.
But this year, it seems the Titans are taking steps to move away from the bullzoing offensive lineman build, instead opting for more movement and pass protection up front.
Andre Dillard, the Titans’ should be starter at left tackle, is more so known for his ability to protect the passer rather than his ability to open up lanes as a run blocker. Peter Skoronski graded out as one of the best pass protectors in college football last season.
These are just two pieces of the puzzle, but it’s clear the Titans are gravitating more towards an offensive line that is centered around supreme pass protection and decent run blocking. As opposed to a strict run blocking based line that has stuck with the Titans in recent memory.
This sounds like it’s common sense and it sounds like it should’ve been a plan the team should’ve executed long ago. But the ways of Jon Robinson prevented that for the most part, which is why we’ve ended up in this situation today.
Tim Kelly’s Past
Perhaps the biggest reason — aside from the Hopkins deal — why the Titans’ balance might be compromised, is the standing of new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly.
During his time with the Texans, Kelly was more inclined to trust Deshaun Watson and Hopkins to lead the offense to the heights they eventually reached.
That isn’t to say Kelly truly abandoned the run game, but it’s fair to admit Kelly preferred to sling the ball around more than not. The Texans’ pass play percentages during Kelly’s time as play caller reflect that statement.
2019: 57.93%
2020: 63.40%
2021: 58.42%
It’s fair to wonder how these numbers will, if at all, translate to his new gig in Nashville. There was similar wonder with Todd Downing when he was announced as offensive coordinator, since his past infatuation with 11 personnel stood out as a potential clashing partner with the Titans’ existing philosophical ideas offensively.
That isn’t to say Kelly will be reformed into some run game nut job that completely forgets how to sense game flow, have a feel for his personnel, and possess good situation feel for play calling.
But it’ll be rather interesting to see if Kelly’s philosophy will be catered to the Titans’ physical preferences, or if he’ll be given more freedom to tinker with the offense as much as he wants.
Vrabel trusts him dating back to his time in Houston, so maybe they’ll be more give than take, but it’ll be interesting to watch develop nonetheless.
The Outline
In all honesty, I think we see a slow trend towards more numerical imbalance for the Titans this season, if things go their way.
Tim Kelly has proven to be a play caller that isn’t afraid to make Hopkins the sole focus on an attack, the offensive line looks ready for a philosophical switch, and with Hopkins still being so talented, staying within the traditional passing margins will be difficult for the Titans.
Take this, mix it all together, and what you get is a passing attack that looks geared for a more welcome stay in 2023.
How much more welcoming you might ask? That depends to be seen, since health has always played a big part into whether this entire team can function properly or not.
If this team can stay healthy and establish their identity early, then this speculative new plan could quickly take root within the offense. Especially if success from it comes early.
If health ravaged the team early on like it had in previous seasons, then the Titans will probably be more inclined to protect themselves and rely on their B&B, or bread and butter.
Until then though, we won’t have a clue as to what the Titans might be thinking schematically with Deandre Hopkins now in the fold.Â
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