[FREE] Clearing the Smoke: 2024 Titans Regime
Why logic and objectivity needs to be at the forefront of this discussion and how those lead you to patience with this 2024 Titans staff.
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The Titans being 3-11 sucks. There’s just no way around it. The entire team is not living up to even the most modest expectations of them in 2024. However, as bad as it may seem on the surface, it is not as bad as people think.
On the latest Titans Talk Back, we had a caller call in and talk about fans/media seeing this season through frustration. I am going to tweak slightly what he said, but not enough to change his meaning. People are viewing this season through a lens of frustration and they’re not seeing everything clearly.
Well, today we are going to the eye doctor and trying to find the right prescription to which to view this season and beyond with. I know there will be a lot of “think pieces” that are just emotional reactions entrenched firmly in that Mike Vrabel should still be here. There will be radio shows and podcasts trying to get everyone into a frenzy because that’s essentially what media is sometimes. But I have always cut it straight with our readers and keep it objective, but also let you decide to do with what information I give you.
Some of you will come to this piece with your mind made up and that’s fine. In today’s world I don’t expect to change your mind. In fact, I have very little hope in doing so despite any facts or logic I lay out. Sometimes the heart wants what the heart wants.
My goal is not that. It is just to lay out everything for the Titans world to see and inform you of what’s real and what isn’t when it comes to the staff. Like I said people are going to try and push a narrative that comes from the wrong place or their just ill-informed of how football works. I have gathered a lot of information over these last few months from players, coaches, and people much smarter than me.
Mostly, this is just to provide a differing point of view from those that are just in their feelings with no actual analysis and a distinct disconnect from what is going on in Nashville. It’s time to quit romanticizing the past and look towards the future. I don’t even like Shaboozey’s music, but I saw his new album painted on the side of a building as a mural on my way to the station yesterday and it’s a bar: “Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going”. That is the story of the Titans now.
The Blame Game: Rumor Round-Up Edition
This is going to span the 2020 Titans all the way through the 2023 Titans. These are what I have heard from Local/National Media or have read in various articles. All of this is just for your information. Believe it or not, that’s for you to decide, but this is what I have collected throughout the years as who is responsible for ripple effect decisions of the franchise, none of these are of my own reporting.
Isaiah Wilson: Two different people have gone on the airwaves and said Mike Vrabel is the guy who fell in love with and pushed for Isaiah Wilson. One person added Art Smith.
A.J. Brown Trade: Duh. Jon Robinson. Have also heard people say Treylon Burks (and yes, he showed up out of shape) was not even given the time of day by this staff. The unwanted child.
Andre Dillard & Aaron Brewer: Mike Vrabel, according to multiple people.
Peter Skoronski: Heard on the airwaves that there was a Skoronski contingent (Vrabel) and a Zay Flowers one (Carthon). “For a fact” was used.
Will Levis: Things are tricky here, but we have heard “ownership inspired” (national) or “Mike Vrabel pick” (local) in terms of Levis being drafted. None of the rumors have been “Carthon’s guy/decision”, though recently it has been reported by PK that “everyone was on board with Levis as the choice there.”
I may be missing other things, but these are the ones I remember off the top of my head, and really the most important that have been most pivotal to where the Titans have found themselves in 2022-2024.
No Toxic Positivity
Most people are going to accuse me of seeing everything with two-toned blue glasses and putting everyone on other people. So, to combat that, right here I am going to lay out the things where this staff ultimately failed, and not use hindsight. These were things I disagreed with at the time and still do. Think of these as “Bad Process, Bad Result”:
Right Tackle: Ran Carthon and Bill Callahan can share blame in this. Coaches have egos. They have that “I can fix them” mentality. Bill Callahan overestimated what he could do with NPF, but Carthon should’ve been the voice of reason. There is leaning on your experienced coaches and then there is using your actual knowledge. Carthon let experience trump what he should have known about NPF’s mentality. Major misstep. Carthon needed to put his foot down on this one and he didn’t.
EDGE Rusher: Brian Callahan openly talked about Arden Key not being an “every down guy” and a rotational piece throughout the offseason. They did absolutely nothing with that. Major misstep by whoever is involved in that.
Jha’Quan Jackson/Returner: One of the few times we heard or saw a position coach at Jha’Quan Jackson’s Pro Day. At the Senior Bowl, JQ was just a dude. He came from a Tulane offensive scheme that isn’t conducive to the development of NFL WRs. He muffed returns in college and only had one real explosive return. I didn’t like any of his tape. I thought for sure with the interest in Zay Flowers the year prior they would go for a “Diet Zay” in Malik Washington. Again, leaning too much into an experienced coach’s hubris (and maybe Tyjae Spears), and possibly letting that influence your decision was a bad move.
The Final-53: The Titans chose to swing the complete opposite way in terms of roster construction from the Vrabel era. Going from Vrabel having too much emphasis on special teams to 2024 where they have zero emphasis on special teams was a major, major misstep that we saw routinely and only recently got corrected. We saw it play out on the field, given you have a Special Teams coordinator doing this for the first time, you should put an emphasis on keeping those players that can contribute over guys you cut quickly or keeping 5 TEs. This has since been corrected with finding guys on waivers or FA or even on their own roster and giving them the opportunity, but a major misstep that could’ve saved you a win.
Treylon Burks over NWI: I knew they were going to do this by their own messaging, but Burks was too far gone. Two years of being on the island of misfit toys was too much for Burks to be developed quickly enough. I was a “This is what they’re doing, but I don’t like it” kind of guy. I kept saying you can’t have Burks in your plans for 2024. Injuries and skill just shouldn’t allow it. Brian Callahan chose a different path and that too may have cost them a win or two with the way NWI is playing right now.
Elijah Molden: Once they signed both Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, Molden wanted out. Demanded a trade. Diggs was worth the trade off up to a point, but Adams wasn’t. Adams never practiced and even if he was meant as a bridge to Diggs, it doesn’t seem like that should’ve been necessary. You shouldn’t need Adams to sign Diggs. Molden was supremely underrated by fans and this staff. A safety duo of Hooker and Molden now that Diggs is injured would be better than what they have trotted out there.
Their Actions matching Words: People have hard time understanding this…even in a rebuild you need to go out and get good players. Every team does it. This team needed to do that in a rebuild to try and be competitive. Braden Gall called it “rebuilding on the fly”, it’s how the NFL works. However, they needed to stay emphasizing their messaging from February throughout the offseason. It went from “reset” and “this may take a few years” to “checked every box”. That’s not on Callahan, but some consistency in messaging and using the word “rebuild” would’ve gone a long way.
In-game Decisions: Look most of this is going to be filed under “First Time Coordinator(s) Growing Pains”. However, I just want it on record I do not agree with every decision or game plan the Titans have employed throughout the year. That just needs to be said, yet I do not believe the staff is near the top of the blame list whatsoever, but again, don’t want people thinking I am being hunky dory about this regime. Things like not using Tyjae Spears enough, play sequencing decisions, defensive game plans, key players on sidelines in critical areas of the field, etc. All fall under this.
There are things that fall under “Good Process, Bad Result”. Trading for Sneed, signing Ridley and Chido, etc. That were lauded at the time but turned out to be bad for various reasons. For the record: I know for a fact Sneed did not “give up” on the team. Don’t listen to people who say that. Now let’s get into various areas of the team that are going to be talked about this week.
FALSE: Penalties is a Coach Stat
There is no strong piece of evidence or data that suggest penalties are a coaching stat. Anyone who tells you that it definitively 100% is only a coaching issue doesn’t know what they’re talking about. Plain and simple. Don’t listen to that person. I am serious.
Like all things in football penalties are nuanced. Can some of it be because of bad coaching? Sure. Is most of it on the players? Yes. Think about it.
As of this writing Laremy Tunsil (15) and Dion Dawkins (14) lead all NFL players in penalties. Are Demeco Ryans and Sean McDermott bad coaches? I think we can say “no” to that. Baltimore leads the league in penalties and is 2nd in penalties per game. Is Harbaugh a terrible coach? Absolutely not. Tennessee is third in penalties per game with 9 penalties a game, with 7.67 being the average. Just to keep in mind that’s not some huge disparity.
What about Pre-Snap penalties? From Weeks 1-14 Green Bay and Tennessee were tied for 5th with 3.53 pr game. Is Matt LaFleur a bad coach? After the Bengals game Tennessee has moved to 3.43 and Green Bay to 3.13.
Over the years the data just tells the same story: Coaching shares some blame I’m sure, but there’s largely no correlations. Remember that 7.67 average of penalties per game? That’s up from 6.72 last year. Last year the Titans average 7.41 per game and was 6th highest. In 2022, Tennessee was tied for the highest with 8 per game. What do we say all three Tennessee teams have in common? Bad players and bad habits.
When you’re in a dog fight, or you lose a 1v1, sometimes technique goes out the window. Take for instance a grabby defensive back. You know why they grab? They’re getting beat. They’re coached different ways to avoid that, but instinct just takes over. An offensive lineman knows the snap count. Sometimes a false start is defense provoking, trying to gain an edge, but often it is a mental lapse.
Do we really think Bill Callahan has suddenly forgot how to coach that? Or do we think a rookie and bad players at RT are more likely having mental lapses. Like get real, people. Again, some of it may be on coaching, sometimes benching a player needs to be a quicker trigger, but I think when you slap on the logic glasses, you’ll see it’s just players doing dumb things.
The state of officiating is another issue that ties into this. Officials based on the per game average are going crazy with flags. There have been missed calls and bad class more so than ever. Not just for the Titans either, though most fans think it is only the Titans getting hurt by poor officiating.
Conor Orr dove into the topic of the 2024 NFL product being sloppier than ever, and I tend to agree. He uses the jumping off point of Sunday’s slate of games where there were missed calls, players doing dumb thing, and bad clock management. It is really wild when you step out of your Titans bubble to see this kind of sloppiness on a weekly and almost game-by-game, basis. Think about it beyond the Titans, but just how many games has officiating been the main talking point, and not in a good way.
Conor goes on to talk about how it is even more complex than just that, and this is where he gets into the officiating:
We haven’t seen more than a cursory willingness to improve life for officials, and the league has only moderately improved a mechanism to take a brief pause and correct egregiously bad calls.
So, as I have talked about on air and on Twitter, a lot of this “undisciplined” stuff can be attributed directly to poor officiating training and bad calls…even more so than coaching. Honestly, coaching is the least culpable party by a mile. It takes common sense to come to these conclusions and in times where emotions are running high, it is much easier to blame one person than multiple people.
Also, if you have a hard time taking my word for it, listen to former players and HCs talk about it and agree.
This Regime Should Not Be Allowed to Pick the next QB
Why? Cause Will Levis sucked and has always sucked? That is about the only reason you really have to hang your hat on. It is ridiculous in every facet. I have Justin Melo, even Canadians say something silly, telling me Brian Callahan doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt because he believed in Levis. What the hell?
What world are we living in right now? That is straight up illogical and from a place of emotion (and Pro-Vrabel), and it makes zero sense in any reality. Should Callahan have gone into the meeting with Amy Adams-Strunk, who said with bravado Will Levis is the guy, and said: “Yeah this guy sucks. I can’t fix him, zero redeeming qualities.” Or “Yeah this guy sucks. Choose him or me.”? What are we even doing here?
This is a bad reason. As we have established, we know that the main driver of Levis was not Carthon. Does that mean he didn’t see value in Levis whatsoever? No. But he did know enough to not draft him over Peter Skoronski, even though the team was in desperation mode. He didn’t reach. He could’ve found Levis undraftable for all we know. Maybe he had Hooker above him. To that extent we don’t know. However, it sounds like even then his hand was forced.
So, what has he done that has warranted not giving him a shot? It’s been established he was heavily involved in day three picks. How involved was he getting the info on Brock Purdy? Not clear, but we would know he was involved in the process. So, again, based on his experience with being around Kyle Shanahan, he should have insight and knowledge in what it takes to scout a quarterback.
Speaking of experience, do we think Brian Callahan forgot everything about offenses and quarterback play since arriving to Tennessee? The whole reason of being a sought-after candidate was because of his experience with offenses. He can pull from many different types of schemes and he definitively does know what it takes to be a quarterback in the NFL.
He’s talked about it all year. Mastering the mundane is 80% of the job. Just because a quarterback like Levis can’t rise to the occasion doesn’t mean he suddenly forgot what good QB play looks like. Again, having faith he can fix an established, owner backed young QB upon your arrival as the new HC doesn’t mean he is suddenly an idiot. It is the hand he was dealt and the risk he took on to get 1 of 32 HC gigs.
To his credit Brian Callahan tried. This team made concerted efforts to make the team better around him. The scheme is getting guys open. There are plays to be made. They gave him all the confidence in the world. Levis didn’t rise to the occasion. That is not a ding on Callahan, that is actually a signal that he does know what he’s doing and does know what this offense could do with even average QB play.
He did take parts of Levis’s game to better heights, but it just got to a point where Levis can’t ever win a game, just a lose game, because of his play. Again, not on Callahan or Carthon, that is on Levis.
In fact, this should give you more faith that they can do this. They’re moving on from the Levis experiment. Other teams may try to give it another go, but they recognize his individual play isn’t good enough and holding them back in most games. Other GMs and HCs may try to ride it out and it will end in disaster for those franchises.
Is Ran Carthon Actually That Bad?
Here’s another one I can’t wrap my head around. Sure, if you continue to ignore all the information about 2023, then yeah, you may think Carthon is bad at his job. He’s far from perfect, but he isn’t as terrible as people say and he isn’t as bad as Jon Robinson who, along with Vrabel, nuked this franchise with three straight dud draft classes. The 2023 draft class is a muddled mess due to a power struggle and lack of structure, so, it stands to reason, that there is a reason, the 2024 draft class is actually better than the 2023 one.
So, let’s look at the 2024 draft class. First, the Titans rookie class has played a total combined of 3,307 snaps. That is the 5th highest mark by any 2024 draft class league wide. Washington, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, and Las Vegas Raiders rank ahead of them. That shows just how much they have had to lean on this class, let’s take a look at each individual pick and whether they’re a Hit, Bust, or Undecided in year one compared to their draft status:
JC Latham: Hit (949 snaps)
T’Vondre Sweat: Hit (636 snaps)
Cedric Gray: Undecided (61 snaps)
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.: Hit (815 snaps)
Jha’Quan Jackson: Bust (171 snaps)
Jaylen Harrell: Hit (433 snaps)
James Williams: Hit (242 snaps)
The draft class is having a very good year one. Now can some of these change over time? Sure, but as far as a draft class having immediate, contributing impact on a team, this is very good news.
Now, 2024 free agency is a little different story. This is where we get into Process, Result kind of deal. Now, again, jury is still out on some of these. L’Jarius Sneed, for example, had a season derailed by a fluke injury that had nothing to do with his knee, so he could feasibly come back next year and be worth it. So, just keep that in mind when I am labeling the Process, Results.
Good Process, Good Results
Calvin Ridley: This is more of a: Good Process, Not Bad Result. I know people are freaking out over the contract and the return, but let’s be honest QB play is hindering most of the production. There’s still time for him to hit 1,000 yards. He’s getting paid $23m AAV, and his contract is very simply structured. I know fans are seeing that big $92m and thinking it’s a massive overpay, but better QB play could help ease those pains. He’s still 16th in AAV and the contract just is kind of where you expect high-end WR2s to be. Granted people thought he was a WR1, but I tried to tell you that his contract would show he’s a WR2 and not considered among the elite.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Re-signing NWI was a bargain. Do it again.
Nick Folk: The team’s most valuable player.
Tony Pollard: The offensive MVP is about to hit 1,000 yards and currently is 8th in rushing in the NFL, 2nd in the AFC.
Mason Rudolph: Mason has been able to guide the team enough to get them two of their three wins. He is now replacing your failed starting QB for the final three games. This is a good process, because in years past you’re looking at guys like Logan Woodside as your back up.
Nick Vannett: Kind of just doesn’t have anywhere else that fits. It wasn’t a bad process, and it hasn’t been a bad result. So, he kind of defaults here.
Sebastian Joseph-Day: A vocal guy in the locker room who is part of helping build a culture. $4m price tag. 5th on the team in total pressures and sacks. 3rd on the team in defensive run stop rate. Good value.
Kenneth Murray: Dude’s a dawg. He has his flaws, but they’re not nearly as openly bad as what I thought. Dude plays his guts out, even while being injured, very week. He’s been a mainstay and has filled in nicely at both WLB and MLB when called upon. Is he Prime David Long (who stinks now?). No. Is he essentially Azeez Al-Shaiir without the attempted murder? Yeah.
Good Process, Bad Result (Injury Division)
Lloyd Cushenberry: Upgrading center was a must and they did it with the top free agent available. The entire OL has gelled in this new system and if Cush would’ve stayed healthy, we would’ve seen the same from him.
L’Jarius Sneed: Sneed was getting downright dogged by fans, but here’s where watching All-22 comes in. Deep throws are timing or spot throws. Sneed was doing just enough to make sure his guy wasn’t getting to the right spot. He got a freak injury and it got worse before it ever got better. I have it on good authority he has not quit on the team, like people accuse him of, and wants to be out on the field badly. I was a fan of the initial trade and Sneed usually does have slow starts, so I was never too concerned with his perceived struggles. Sneed is much more likely to be a factor in 2025 than whatever player the third-round pick could’ve been used on. Sneed is gonna have a chip on his shoulder for sure.
Quandre Diggs: Quandre Diggs was looking like an absolute steal at $3m. If you’re a PFF person, he is still the 4th highest rate Titans defender. He also has the lowest missed tackle rate out of defenders with 400 snaps on the team. There’s a lot of games where you think Diggs could’ve executed the run fits better.
Chidobe Awuzie: Sure, injury history was always a cloud hovering over him. But this was a very empty corner back room and Chido, despite injury concerns, was one of the better options. He’s played in 5 games and has only allowed 87 yards on 7 catches. 14 targets as well. This could end up in the Good Result column if he stays healthy and active the rest of the way.
Good Process, Bad Results (Non-Injury Division)
Tyler Boyd: He hasn’t lived up to the modest hype he had. He’s just not a guy you can really rely on as much as you thought you could. I am sure there are some intangible qualities, but he needed to be a part of this offense that helped move the chains and he’s been largely invisible.
Bad Process, Bad Results
Jamal Adams: As minimal as he cost in terms of money, he was a certifiable waste of time. We all knew it, and that’s that.
Geron Christian: Some people tried to talk themselves into this, but I knew he was never going to be anything. Sure, enough they got nothing.
Saahdiq Charles: Fine to bring in for competition, but he had a litany of injury concerns already and then he retires on you.
So, maybe Ran Carthon isn’t terrible at his job, just unlucky so far with how some things have fallen. He could end up being bad, don’t get me wrong, but again, I have faith in his experience and pedigree that he is moving things in the right direction.
The Not-So Special Teams
I have made my feelings known on what I think has been wrong much of the year: bad players. Lots of these special teams disaster plays, again you have to watch the All-22, can be attributed to boneheaded mistakes. Now, again, coaching does play a role, but I truly think you can pinpoint to the moves and changes the Titans have made that fixed issues and see the correlation to players being the issue.
Colt Anderson’s press conference availability has done him no favors. He has said stuff that has been twisted into one sentence tweets that leave out context. Like when he said he “assumed” about his players. He expands on that where it is clear he is referencing that he assumes that they understand in practice and can implement in the game.
Either way, special teams hasn’t been an abject disaster, over the last two weeks since making personnel changes, and so, its clear he found the right guys with the right mindset. He has emphasized violence, physicality, and mindset since the beginning of the year. Last week he emphasized he found those young players with the right mindset, physicality, and intensity, and that is why special teams has been better.
I still contend he isn’t likely to be fired, and if he is, it is optics or public relations move than a cause move. In my opinion, Brian Callahan did the right thing by sticking with Colt and letting him find, coach, and teach the guys that are wanting to play his way.
I’m So Confused
There are just conflicting statements everywhere when it comes to whether this roster is better than 2023. If everyone had remained healthy, you could say, yes, overall, the talent is better. But then I see those same people saying this roster is better, also calling for Carthon’s job because he sucks. Uhm, what?
Then I see people say Vrabel could win with this roster, but that the roster has gotten worse. Uhm, what? That doesn’t vibe.
Ultimately, Vrabel, who is responsible for Brewer and Dillard, wouldn’t ever have dreamed of having this roster. It would’ve looked way different, and the results would still likely be a disappointing season. You can’t have it both ways in this thought process.
If you think Vrabel could’ve won more with this roster cause the talent is better, then Ran Carthon did a good job. If you think this roster is worse and Carthon should be fired, then Vrabel isn’t going to make any difference.
The biggest roster issue plaguing this team, and most bad teams, is the QB.
#NeverLevis was Right
Ultimately, Levis is far from being an NFL starting caliber QB. Whether you’re pro/anti-Vrabel, no head coaching path in 2024 was going to fix this issue. Mike Macdonald wasn’t going to make Levis into something he isn’t. Neither was Vrabel or Canales. Maybe Ben Johnson, but based on what I have seen, Levis is just not ready.
He needs to have Geno Smith path where he is a back-up for years and rarely plays, but unfortunately the Titans don’t have that time. Levis has 17 turnovers and those turnovers have led to 59 points. Sure, on some of these losses, other units failed. Special Teams or defense had let down games, but the point of a franchise quarterback is to help lift the tam in those circumstances, however, Levis just piled on in most cases.
Bears: 11 points. The Titans lost by 7.
Jaguars: Several missed opportunities to win. Lost by 4.
Bengals: 4 turnovers leading to 24 points. Lost by 10.
Just a different quarterback in those games and this team would be 6-8. Then look at a game like the Colts, where he had two opportunities to pull out a game winning drive. He threw an interception and then went 2 for 5 for 11 yards and Colts got the ball back. Titans lost by 3.
He also wasn’t good the entire game, only amassing 95 yards through the air. So, there could be another win with more competent QB play. 7-7 with an average NFL QB is a possibility and 8-6 wouldn’t be off the table. All of that to say, would anyone be complaining about Carthon and Callahan if Levis was replaced with just a consistently average QB? No. This all goes back to the QB.
Which then leads back to the question of Brian Callahan. Supposed “QB Guru/Whisperer”. Hate to tell you all, but the only people who called him that was Tennessee local media. Not making it up. I googled “Brian Callahan QB Whisperer” and “Brian Callahan QB Guru”, the only articles that mention that are people who cover the Titans after he was hired. Radio and podcasts were guilty of this too…have to say this site and FWords are safe from that!
But when I did my HC Profile on Callahan, those monikers never popped up. What did pop was his ability to communicate, maybe he whispered during meetings, with different types of quarterbacks. He knew when to yell, when to teach, etc. He dealt with many different styles of quarterbacks, but all of them, until Burrow/Browning, were already developed. He just gained experience in what those great quarterbacks (minus Tebow & Carr) did to be great. What worked for them and didn’t. What traits they have and how to maximize them. He didn’t whisper football knowledge to them.
He was able to do a lot with Jake Browning, but let’s be honest, Browning did what he was told. Callahan helped make sure that the plays were installed with his likes/dislikes heard, but Browning was a guy who could execute. Levis just isn’t that guy. Levis’s failure rest squarely on his inability to execute. It’s all over the All-22. Levis had a few games where he wasn’t the reason you lost, but he has yet to be the reason you win.
We all said throughout this entire offseason the Titans must:
Get an Offensive Minded HC. Check.
Get a more Modern Offense. Check.
Build around Will Levis. Check.
Find out what Will Levis is. Check.
We also rounded all of that out with: “This season lives and dies by Will Levis.” The season died by Will Levis, simple as that. Were there other weapons deployed some weeks? Sure, but those were handguns and bayonets. Levis was a nuke. Now in the aftermath of that nuclear fallout, everyone wants to blame the survivors not the weapon.
The vast majority of media and fans knew what he was, and most cannot come to terms with being right and it is easier to blame everything else. Mariota Wars 2.0
Where Have They Improved?
This is a loaded question. Cause you can talk about from both prior seasons and in-season. In a 3-11 season it is hard to find improvement, I get it. No one wants to hear it, but that’s where viewing things through a lens of frustration hinders your ability to be objective. I have already talked about penalties, special teams blunder, and the QB situation/turnovers being worse, and I am sure there will be content saying this team hasn’t improved and it is an absolute dumpster fire. It’s just false.
First, let’s talk about where they have improved offensively from prior years. There will be some improvements over both years and just improvements over last year:
2022 (17 gms) -> 2023 (17) -> 2024 (14)
PPG: 17.53 -> 17.94 -> 18.14
YPG: 296.76 -> 289 -> 301
Passing TDs: 16 -> 14 -> 18
Games of 6pts or Less: 0 -> 3 -> 1
S.O.S.*: -0.05 -> +0.41 -> +1.38
Avg. Sep: 3.1 -> 3.3 -> 3.5
QB Pressure %: 43.9% -> 41.8% -> 40.9%
*Strength of schedule rating from pf-ref, and the higher the number the tougher the schedule.
Let’s start with this, with a few games left the PPG could fluctuate, same with yards per game, but we know Mason Rudolph has already had two games with him starting where the offense put together back-to-back 400+ yards of total offense. So, even despite sabotaging QB player the Titans offense has gotten better, and that is due to scheme.
Just to go back to the strength-of-schedule, this is a much tougher slate of teams the Titans have had to face this year than anything Vrabel had the last two seasons. Sorry Vrabel-holics, time to sober up.
The offensive scheme is much improved from last year. It may not look like it because of player driven errors, but it is. Simple as that. It works, turn on the All-22 and you see guys getting open, you see the layering of plays, and you see concepts foreign to any Titans fan dating back when they first moved here. It is a much-improved scheme that just needs the right conductor.
How about on the field? Yeah, that’s tougher to point to, I get it, but OL play has gotten better with time, despite injuries and the travesty that is right tackle. Callahan has improved from a game plan standpoint. The offensive attacks are more purposeful and do have a counterpunch when needed, even if that right jab doesn’t land. Same can be said for the defensive side of the ball as well. These new play callers are still not in their final form, but they’ve had to make several adjustments throughout the year to find what would and wouldn’t work with the personnel they have.
For the most part Callahan’s sequencing is better, he is quicker to learn and correct from his mistakes. He is adjusting, and really adjusting is something the last regime never did. It was same plan, same plays, no matter the people available. Callahan is adjusting to his players even if it doesn’t seem like it to the untrained eye. He started introducing more pistol concepts, RPOs, heavier jumbo packages, and other wrinkles to try and create a spark.
Special Teams has gotten better, but I still want to see the rest of the way. Something that has improved in-game and from prior years, is ditching players or concepts that aren’t working. You got a leash with this regime or they will find someone on the roster or elsewhere to replace you. Now many of you will point to NPF, but they tried to replace him, then injuries forced him back in the lineup.
Patience is a Virtue
Here’s one reason, and it is a big reason, to have patience with this regime, besides all the logic laid out above: The players are still playing hard for their coach. Tony Pollard, Kenneth Murray, and T’Vondre Sweat are all playing through injury and playing like wild men out on the field. Let’s not forget Big Jeff who has his arm hanging by a thread who could’ve opted for surgery at any point to end his season. Chido put in the work and effort to make it back even during a losing season.
There’s just so many examples of healthy guys playing their hearts out. Sometimes effort just doesn’t matter when it comes to the W-L column, but it does matter for the culture they’re building. Nick Suss had a fantastic column at the Tennessean (it’s free) talking about the Titans unshaken belief in their coach. Here are some quotes:
"That’s the thing: I think culture is like faith," defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day says. "You don’t see it. You don’t taste it. But you feel it. When it’s there, you feel it. When it’s out on that field, you feel it . . . I feel like that’s what Cally is building here. I love it. I love what he’s doing."
Tight end Nick Vannett says Callahan's superpower is his ability to let players be themselves. No one has to tiptoe around the locker room. Everyone's on the team for a reason, and Vannett says Callahan doesn't get in the way of that
Again, it is hard to get a fan base to buy in on culture. We aren’t at practice. We aren’t at meetings. It is something you must take in good faith. But that is why you should give this regime patience to build something new. Cause they burnt the old place to the ground when they fired Vrabel. Not only did they break ground and start building a new Stadium this offseason, but they also broke ground and started building a new foundation over the ashes of the old. They’ve poured the concrete and are starting to frame the house. We need to let them finish before we burn it down.
Constant turnover is a real hindrance to growth of a franchise, but also the growth of players. I talked about Conor Orr’s article about sloppiness a few sections up, but he also talks about the NFL’s culture of impatience. He goes into it on this statement which is very indicative of the current Titans team:
Dwindling practice time, and a mercurial ownership base that continues to hire unqualified or unprepared coaches and then fires them before they get good enough to manage a game, are obviously some of the main reasons for why this NFL season in particular feels like it’s being uprooted by a kind of chasm. The gap between competent ownership, coaching and playing vs. incompetent ownership, coaching, and playing is more significant than ever, hence nearly a third of the NFL failing to eclipse the five-win mark before the winter solstice.
Patience helps stabilize franchises more often than not. The business of football has moved away from the days of giving a new regime time to turnover a team and build a new culture with new concepts and methods. At the end of the day, football is a team sport. Teams are built through continuity and building relationships. We’ve seen many examples that continuity more of than not will yield results, but these results are more sustainable. Think about how hard it is to take a team that is old and dead in the water.
You have to not only find new players, but you also have to keep some of the existing players that were part of the reason the prior team had two losing seasons. Teach everyone a new way of doing thing, while you yourself are also learning a new job. This was a bad roster last year and it takes multiple player acquisition cycles to flip it. Jon Robinson was the outlier in a long list of roster-flipping teams throughout NFL history. Mike Vrabel took over a much better situation than what was left for Brian Callahan.
Blaine Bishop talks about the parallels between NFL and the business world often on our show. He talks a lot about CEOs. Last week the hot topic was Amy Adams-Strunk having a presser. He brought up the point of how many CEOs do you see get out and make statements and stuff. Usually, it’s just an email or press release. I want to take this analogy one step further. I wanted to see how long a CEO’s lifespan was at a S&P 500 company.
So, luckily, I didn’t have to do any mass data aggregating, because on May 30, 2024, Fortune.com wrote an article detailing how CEOs can hurt their company if they stay too long. The study came up with a model talk about the five stages of a CEO’s average tenure. The findings were interesting, and they came up with that in Year 4 or 5 is when the CEOs find their confidence, stride, and establish that work culture.
Nowadays the NFL is in such a pop-up style business that they’re not allowing coaches, who have the resume they were looking for, to get to that point, and to be honest, 4 to 5 years does seem very unreasonable, but the point is 3 to 4 years seems to be where things pay off for franchises that are patient. Recent history shows that and maybe Titans ownership knows that currently as well. Fans and media need to take it into account as well.
Look at these franchises that are considered the least efficient teams during the 2018-2024 era:
This doesn’t include the Broncos, Bears, and Colts who at least had their defense bail them out during that span. The Titans, if they were to fire everyone, would likely continue down this trend. They have no clear option at the most important position: quarterback. So, how do we expect anyone eels to come in here and do things differently and get better results? There are rare exceptions where impatience pays off immediately, but it took several years of bottoming out for the Commanders and Texans. It took the Texans to bottom out andget two first round picks in the very top of the draft. It took the Commanders ownership having a massive scandal that hurt several innocent people.
So, the question becomes which is more likely: You are going to be one of the two teams on a list of eleven, or you are going to be in the majority? Are you the 18.2% or the 81.8%? History says that you’d likely fall back into that 81.8% loser cycle. Sure, that may net you (insert QB prospect that may not be declaring for the draft in 2026) or it may just cause you to be a more and more dysfunctional franchise.
After everything I have laid out, I still contend patience is key. If you come from a place of objectivity and logic by setting aside your frustration and emotions, you can see the foundation. My gut instinct could be wrong. Maybe Carthon does suck. Maybe Callahan does too. I am willing to let it play out based on both people’s pedigree and experience. Anyone who declares they 100% do suck are either engagement farming, lack perspective, or just overly emotional.
Right now, this team needs stability. Vrabel was a disruptive force at the end of his tenure. Robinson was as well. Maybe positivity isn’t the way forward, but neither was the old guard. Maybe there is this in-between space the Titans have yet to find and need to look for, but it doesn’t need to be right now, let’s give it another year. And let’s stop grandstanding the Vrabel firing. Maybe if you all stopped looking in the past, you could see the future. I don’t know about y’all, but “Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going” and the same can be said for the Titans.
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