[FREE] An In-Depth Look at Kevin Byard
Who Kevin Byard was, is and will be for the Titans. His legacy in Nashville is not dead.
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Today’s article is free for 48 hours! Unless you have been living under a rock or lost at sea, the Titans on Monday traded away stalwart player and leader Kevin Byard. I am going to dive deep into Byard’s legacy and the ripple effect of the trade.
Kevin Byard: The Player and Human
Kevin Byard: His Legacy is Not Finished
A Quick Aside on Released Statements
Breaking Down the Contract & Value
His Impact on the Teams
I didn’t really give a true reaction on X when the trade happened. I never gave it a “grade”. I never weighed in on the value. I wanted to let it all marinate. Rushing to your social media platform of choice after all hell breaks loose is something I have tried, personally, not to do over the last year.
My initial reaction that I had personally, and the reaction I have now that I have slept on it remain the same: It was very a good trade for both teams and the player. This reaction will be explained more thoroughly in the sections where I breakdown the contract and the impact of Byard.
Before I get into the objectivity sections, I wanted to talk about who Kevin Byard was and will be to the Titans.
Kevin Byard: The Player and Human
My personal interest in the Titans started when they were in Memphis, but my true, hardcore fandom didn’t kick in until 2002 when I moved up to Tennessee. So, I have seen a lot of players come and go with this team. I have seen leaders, impact players, slobs, scrubs, I have seen it all.
This is why I have grown, as I have gotten older, to loathe the Mount Rushmore of (insert team), because every team has loads of players that should be considered. However, I think Kevin Byard may be the most important Titans players since Steve McNair. He may not be the best player since McNair, yet he is the most important.
What Byard brought to the team goes far beyond the field. He brought stability and leadership, almost instantly, to the team. He brought true professionalism and became an important piece for what was sort of the rebirth of the Titans.
Coaches leaned on him as they continued to go from forgotten teams to sometimes AFC contenders. He was always healthy and mostly reliable. He also was a leader in the community. His impact on the city goes just beyond what he did on the turf. It exceeds what he did in the locker room. It reaches into Nashville and all of its surrounding cities.
While there will be some hard truths I give about who he is now, make no mistake. He is one of my favorite players to follow that has worn two-tone blue and he is the most important player the Titans have rostered since McNair.
Kevin Byard: His Legacy is not Dead
I think fans overreact to when a player leaves like this. Shocker, I know, but remember when Jurrell Casey got traded and he did nothing? I remember. Pepperidge Farm remembers. He acted pissy. Fans were mad. Yet, he has been a pretty frequent alumni here in Nashville.
It is fine to be emotional at first, but eventually everyone involved should realize it’s not personal. It’s business. Maybe that’s not how you want to do business but sometimes it is a necessary evil in the NFL. I am here to give you some comforting news: Kevin Byard’s Legacy isn’t Finished.
The Titans need to do this every year, but Byard will be a "Ring of Honor” player for the Titans. Just because he has been traded to the Eagles, doesn’t mean he isn’t a Titan for life.
Hell, Vrabel and Suggs played elsewhere, and both were inducted into the primary team’s Ring of Honors just this weekend. Terrell Owens, who went on to play for several teams with major success at almost every stop, is in the 49ers Hall of Fame.
Steve McNair to the Ravens? Ring of Honor. Byard will have his day here again in Nashville at some point. In fact, it’s highly likely he will retire a Titan via a one-day contract, and they should immediately place him into the Ring of Honor. It’s a no-brainer and it shouldn’t be some slow, drawn-out process.
All of this to say, Byard will be back in two-tone blue in some form or fashion to end and celebrate his very good career.
A Quick Aside on Released Statements
As a society, can we quit nitpicking released statements. These players, coaches, and executives, have people on payroll that write these statements up and just have them either approve it for release or read it at a presser. There is no hidden messaging or meaning. Also, who cares?
Why is everyone so wrapped up in what a person said in someone else’s words? I don’t get it, it may be very old man screaming at clouds, but I was not on X yesterday just waiting with bated breath for everyone’s very generic comments about the trade.
Also, I talked about it in an earlier article, but props to Byard’s team for getting a very generic statement out there shifting blame to the Titans and making him look innocent. No, seriously, props to them. He has a great Public Relations team. They did it when all the “pay cut” rumors were flying and did it again yesterday, but they have made Byard and his side of things look very innocent.
The truth, likely, is that Byard did want to stay with the Tennessee Titans…with a lucrative extension. That is what their side has been angling for this entire time, an extension that gets him paid above and beyond what players his age are normally paid. By the way, this is what his team and every player’s team, should do. They should absolutely angle for getting their players the most money.
So, again props to them, because they definitely have fans eating out of the palm of their hands.
Breaking Down the Contract & Value
Earlier I said the trade was very good for all teams involved. Now, you’re going to see typical writers that haven’t watched Titans football the last two years, and look at the trade parameters, and say the Titans got fleeced. There’s always a winner or a loser in these types of columns, and no one in the media can’t say enough good things about the almighty Howie Roseman. He’s infallible and everyone else are chumps!
However, the Titans got very good value out of Byard. The Eagles got a good player for them in return. It is a win/win. Now, you’ll see local media who flew off-the-cuff or just don’t know any better and say this isn’t good value. It’s a 5th and a 6th! They’ll yell into the ether. It just shows that some people in media are really no more knowledgeable than fans.
This is where the objective data comes in, it may not agree with your emotions, but this is how the NFL does business. There are three different trade charts you can look at for valuing the draft picks a NFL team has:
The Jimmy Johnson: the most infamous and, likely, commonly used chart.
The Rich Hill: A revised version of the Jimmy Johnson Chart that may be the standard now in team circles.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger: A model that uses rookie contracts that have concluded to retroactively add value. More advanced analytics driven and not used widely by teams.
So, the Titans got two picks in return. Remember, the Eagles didn’t have a third on hand, it’s likely they get one via compensatory picks, but they do not have that confirmed yet until the offseason. So, they traded picks they had. Right now, those picks are projected the 5.144 and 6.170 picks in the NFL draft.
Here is where the 5.144 | 6.170 values come out:
The Jimmy Johnson: 34 | 23
The Rich Hill: 14 | 8
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 481 | 397
Now, you may be wondering why I am continuing down this rabbit hole. Well, that is because if you were to package picks to trade up, these NFL teams use one of these charts to weigh their decision on trading back.
So, here is what that combination of value for those two picks equal out to on the charts. Meaning, add those values together, what could you possible trade up to, for a player.
The Jimmy Johnson: 4th Round, roughly Pick 118
The Rich Hill: 4th Round, roughly Pick 123
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 3rd Round, roughly Pick 66
Let’s take a look at what the Titans gave up for Will Levis. They gave up pick 2.41, 3.72, and a 2024 3rd. That 2024 3rd for today’s purposes is roughly 3.73. The Titans in return got 2.33 and 3.81. Keep in mind that current year trades that include future draft picks, those future draft picks are valued less. For instance, you go one round less in value than the current draft pick. So, a 2024 3rd Round Draft Pick is valued like a 2023 4th Round Draft pick.
So, let’s just look at an image of the Will Levis trade:
For the most part, considered even trades, or really trades that are per the norm. The team needing to trade is likely always on somewhat of a losing end. All of this said, the Titans now have received a 4th round value for Kevin Byard and that is how you need to look at it. Don’t drown yourselves in “But the Titans Picks History!” New GM, new analytics department. We can’t use Robinson’s picks or further back, to dictate what Carthon’s picks will look like.
Keep in mind, the day three picks are where he did a lot of work for the 49ers from 2017-2022.
Now, to the contract. The biggest thing to understand, the Titans did not save $14m against the cap. While $14m is a part of the math, it is not the final cap savings. I do not care what local media member said that, it’s wrong. I luckily did the math already in a prior article breaking down the contract when it was initially signed up. I then double checked the math with both sites.
These are numbers according to Spotrac.com late last night:
2023
Titans Cap Space Prior to Trade: $11,530,403
Kevin Byard Savings: $2,444,444
Terrell Edmunds added Cap Hit: $1,054,110
New Cap Space: $12,920,737
Old Cap Space + Byard Savings - Edmunds Cap Hit
2024
Byard’s Old Cap Hit: $19,573,000
$9.6m base salary + $5.473m prorated bonus* + $4m Roster Bonus + $500k roster/per game
*Has to be on roster in March of 2024 to earn $4m (presumably start of league year)
Dead Cap Hit After Trade: $13,359,000
Prorated Bonus for 2024 of $5.473m
Void Year Amounts that total $7.886m in 2025/2026
Saves: $6,214,000
$19,573,000 - $13,359,000
Titans Cap Space Prior to Trade: $80,334,523
Titans New Cap Space: $86,548,523
Now, before you go any further, the New 2024 Cap Space does not include the rollover from 2023. Spotrac does not include that, and that makes sense. However, OverTheCap.com does include the rollover. If you add that $86.55m + $12.9m together you get $99.45m. They’re at $99.7m at OverTheCap.com. They’re always a little bit apart and not exactly the same, but that goes to show where that difference comes from.
Now, you can use that $14m in the calculation to get to the same $6.214m in savings:
Eagles Taking On: $14,1000,000
$9.6m base salary + $4m roster bonus* + $500k roster/per game bonus
*Has to be on roster in March of 2024 to earn $4m (presumably start of league year)
Unaccounted Dead Cap for Titans: $7,886,000
$3,943,000 in both 2024 & 2025
Accelerates into 2024 due to trade
Cap Savings for 2024: $6,214,000
$14,100,000 - $7,886,000
Anyone who is say it is $14.1m isn’t taking into account the accelerated dead cap money from 2025/2026 that go into 2024 now.
Hopefully, that clears everything up and gives you the confidence to correct those that may be relaying the incorrect information.
His Impact on the Teams
Impact on the Eagles
There is a very good chance that Kevin Byard rebounds in the Philadelphia Eagles defense. He likely won’t be targeted as much, as he was with the Titans. This will be controversial to some, but this has very little to do with Byard. When players goto better surroundings they typically play better and this should be the case for Byard.
This does not mean the Titans weren’t putting him in a position to succeed. This doesn’t mean the scheme sucked. It means absolutely nothing about the Titans. It just means that having about 10 All-Pros in front of you helps you out often. When the pass rush is excellent, the coverage tends to look better. He is walking into a top-10 pass defense in many different categories. I don’t expect that change exponentially either for good or bad. With or without his presence this was always going to be top-10 defense.
On the other hand…
Impact on the Titans
I don’t think there is going to be a considerable drop-off in pass defense for the Titans without Byard. Quite frankly, the Titans stink at pass defense and have since 2022 and Kevin Byard has played every game.
2023 Metrics:
Dropback EPA: 28th
Dropback Success rate: 29th
Interceptions: 32nd
Comp %: 25th
2022-2023 Metrics:
Dropback EPA: 30th
Dropback Success rate: 27th
Interceptions: 22nd
Comp %: 25th
It can’t get much worse. In other words, I think there will be negligible difference between what we see without Byard over the next 11 games and what we have seen for the previous 23 games with Byard. Byard has always had issues with athletic players and as he gets older and things around him aren’t as good, he was getting more exposed.
According to Michael B. Herndon, Byard was on pace to be targeted 60 times this season. That is 10% more than his previous career high. Though he has seen a lot of opportunities he has yet to create and pass break-ups or interceptions.
He is not the player he was two to three years ago, which is okay to say. It does not diminish his career or the person he is, it is just being objective about the current state of his play and how it has little impact with this team.
His impact will be felt more in terms of leadership than on the field play, and in the midst of a season with more turmoil than last, that could be a huge blow, but better to get something for a veteran than keep him and have nothing to show for it other than gratitude from fans.
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