Final Mock Draft & Big Board

Wrapping up the NFL Draft with my Final Mock for the Tennessee Titans, First Round, a Big Board & so much more

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It’s here! It’s finally here! It’s like waking up on Christmas Morning, because the NFL Draft finally begins tonight at 7p CST! Check your emails for an exclusive invite to the live draft event tonight.

I got a lot I want to bring to your attention today and because of that I may not get as wordy as I normally do. Big announcement is coming next week that will help grow the newsletter!

For today, I am going to be talking

• Pre-Draft Visits

• Expert Mock Draft Round-Up

• Final 7 Round Mock Draft for the Titans

• Final 1st Round NFL Mock Draft

• Introducing My Titans Big Board (263 Prospects)

Pre-Draft Visits

Titans are at 26/30* Visits

- Mohamoud Diabate
- Emmanuel Forbes
- Jaelyn Duncan
- Gervon Dexter
- Anthony Richardson
- Nathaniel Dell
- Will Levis
- Julius Brents
- Carter Warren
- Anthony Bradford
- Keion White
- Quan Martin
- Broderick Jones
- Jonathan Mingo
- Quentin Johnston
- Cam Smith
- Villaimi Fehoko^
- Darnell Wright
- Hendon Hooker
- Zay Flowers
- Unnamed RB that's not Bijan Robinson
- Marte Mapu
- Tucker Kraft
- Tyjae Spears
- Deonte Banks
- Joey Fisher^

Locals
- Devonnsha Maxwell
- Jeremy Lucien

Virtual Meetings:
- Ventrell Miller
- Tyler Scott
- Darel Middleton
- McClendon Curtis
- Mark Evans
- John Michael Schmitz^
- Jaelyn Duncan
- Ivan Pace
- Payne Durham
- TK McLendon
- Nick Broeker
- Jake Haener

Position Count:
DBs (6)
DL/EDGE (6)
RB (2)
ILB (4)
QB (4)
TE (2)
WR (5)
OL (11)

*Dalton Kincaid is a possible top-30, not included in list/count ^Unconfirmed Reports of top-30 visit by http://WalterFootball.com

Zach, I saw all of this on Twitter already. Sure! But this is gonna have an addendum just for those who get the newsletter!

Here are the amount of players the 49ers have drafted from 2017-2022 during Carthon’s time there that were visits:

• 2022: 6 of 9

• 2021: 3 of 8

• 2020: 2 of 5

• 2019: 5 of 8

• 2018: 2 of 9

• 2017: 3 of 10

43% of the draft picks ended up being visits of some sort. That means you can expect at least 2-3 of their draft picks in the 2023 draft to be visits, if the data holds up.

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The Best Mockers of the Last Five Years

No analysis here. You have seen my analysis on previous posts, but just wanted to give you a quick update.

1. Matthew Jones: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

2. Brendan Donahue: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (Trade-Up)

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Tyler Smith, OL, Tulsa

3. Evan Silva: Peter Skoronski, iOL, Northwestern

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt

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The Best Mockers of 2022

1. Ben Standing: Paris Johnson, Jr., OT, Ohio State

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

2. Forrest Long: Peter Skoronski, iOL, Northwestern

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Not Available :(

3. Ron Stewart: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (Trade Up)

2022 Final Pick for Titans: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

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My 7 Round Mock Draft

TRADE: Round 1 | Pick 1.06: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Lions Get: 1.11, 3.72, 5.147
Titans Get: 1.06, 3.81

Titans Biggest Needs: QB, OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Anthony Richardson

I’ve caved. You’ll find out later today at the Live 10a show for Football & Other F Words, but the evidence and conspiracy theories are just too much to ignore at this point. Stroud is likely going to fall and the Titans are going to scoop him up.

They make a trade with the Lions that I had on my draft value article the other day. Get to stay in the first but lose a 5th. Detroit doesn’t have a fourth and neither do the Titans so they get a 5th which gives them a total of there 5th round picks that they could use to get up to the 4th round if they choose.

TRADE: Round 2 | Pick 47: Steve Avila, G, TCU

Commanders Get: 2.47, 4.118, 5.150
Titans Get: 2.41

Titans Biggest Needs: QB, OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Jack Campbell, Darnell Washington, Sam LaPorta

The Commanders came a calling. I thought they were trading up for Hendon Hooker, but instead drafted Cam Smith. The Titans pick up a 4th and 5th and still get the highest rated guard on the board.

Round 3 | Pick 81: Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati

Titans Biggest Needs: QB, OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Marvin Mims, Tyjae Spears, Kobie Turner, Jordan Battle

I almost pulled the trigger on Tyjae Spears, but the Titans have shown too much interest to ignore Tyler Scott sitting there. Titans get a deep threat with some of the physicality they like to see on the field.

Round 4 | Pick 118: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland

Titans Biggest Needs: QB, OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Brenton Strange, Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed, Sidy Sow, Dorian Williams

I take a big risk here. I really like Jayden Reed, but I think he’s almost a carbon copy of Tyler Scott. I am also passing on a few prospects I like on the defensive side of the ball, but you can’t have too many offensive linemen.

The Titans have shown too much interest in Jaelyn Duncan to not draft him as he has fallen into the fourth round. He can gain some weight, technique, and experience by basically red-shirting a year.

Round 6 | Pick 186: Grant DuBose, WR, Charlotte

Titans Biggest Needs: OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Trey Dean III, Jake Andrews, Ventral Miller

Titans snag a big bodied perimeter wide receiver that they got their eyes on at the Senior Bowl. Think of him as a sort of Jauan Jennings kind of guy. Going to get in there do the dirty work cause he can and he has a good work ethic.

Round 7 | Pick 215: Mohamoud Diabate, ILB, UTAH

Titans Biggest Needs: OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: Nick Hampton, Isaiah Land, Brenton Cox

With 13.5 tackles for a loss in his final college season, the Titans select a linebacker they’ve been connected to in multiple off-season ways. All-Star games, top-30, he’s been here. Extensive interest aligns with value.

Round 7 | Pick 228: Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama

Titans Biggest Needs: OT, OG, C, WR, TE, EDGE, CB, RB, ILB
Best Players on the Board: No one better

Cannot believe the second best tight end from the Senior Bowl is still hanging around. This is an absolute steal and will complement Chig for years to come!

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Final First Round NFL Mock Draft

“Thanks I Hate It” Edition

1. Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young | QB | Alabama

2. Houston Texans: Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama

3. Arizona Cardinals: Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texans Tech

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis | QB | Kentucky

5. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Carter | iDL | Georgia

6. TRADE: Tennessee Titans: C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida

8. TRADE Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State

9. Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson, Jr | OT | Ohio State

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia

11. TRADE Detroit Lions: Christian Gonzalez | CB | Oregon

12. Houston Texans: Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU

13. TRADE Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas

14. New England Patriots: Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia

15. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski | OL | Northwestern

16. Washington Commanders: Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee

18. Detroit Lions: Lukas Van Ness | EDGE | Iowa

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Hendon Hooker | QB | Tennessee

20. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Mayer | TE | Notre Dame

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah

22. Baltimore Ravens: Jordan Addison | WR | USC

23. Minnesota Vikings: Joey Porter | CB | Penn State

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Calijah Kancey | DL | Pitt

25. New York Giants: Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland

26. Dallas Cowboys: Steve Avila | G | TCU

27. Buffalo Bills: O’Cyruse Torrence | OL | Florida

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Myles Murphy | EDGE | Clemson

29. New Orleans Saints: Luke Musgrave | TE | Oregon St

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College

    

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My Big Board

Ran Carthon said during his pre-draft presser that he uses a big board that works both vertically and horizontally. I wondered why more people in the NFL Draft media do it this way?

You’re essentially replicating what NFL teams actually do. Going 1-150 is great, but how does that really show positional value, strategy, and proper rank?

You’re putting Anthony Richardson at 17, but is he really the 17th best value on a team’s board? I am going to replicate and demonstrate what a big board should look like in the media. Here is an old screenshot of some teams draft board in 2017

This is dramatically different than what you see. So, here is how you read it. Obviously, position at top, then you read it vertically for rank and from left to right for priority. Mine will work this same way. I have taken a step further and broken down the first three rounds into three categories:

• Trade Up

• Stay at Draft pick

• Trade Back

I have also color coded every position to give you a better sense of what rounds I feel have better positional depth. From the best to my memory I am doing red flag designations. Names in red have either injury history/concerns and off-field issues reported. Names in blue are “blue chip players”.

I went one step further and described what I believe to be the minimum expectation of a player drafted in every round:

• 1st Round: Every-down contributor (i.e. starter) after no more than one year of development who you’d want to sign to a 2nd contract after his rookie deal expires.

• 2nd Round: Every-down contributor at some point over his rookie contract.

• 3rd Round: Rotational contributor after no more than one year of development, with the potential to become an every-down contributor.

• 4th Round: Rotational contributor at some point over his rookie contract.

• 5th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any 3 of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

• 6th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any 2 of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

• 7th Round: Backup and special teams contributor who makes the team in any of the first 4 years of his rookie contract.

Each player also has a number beside their name in parenthesis. Those are their position ranks. So, let me show you an example real quick.

Here’s the 3rd Round. Josh Downs is the top rated player among every position and the only player I would trade up for in the third round. He is my WR9. From there is goes to Pick at 72, and Tyler Scott, then Marvin Mims, then Tyjae Spears. So, priority is three WRs, and then the running back, then to Tucker Kraft.

Tyjae Spears is in red because he has a concerning medical history.

So, I came to my rankings in a few ways. This is a big board I put together with the specific team of the Titans in mind. This is not a NFL big board. From there these are my evaluations of thee prospects vs team needs vs value. I collaborated and bargained with myself from multiple points of view.

Any tie-breaker I used strictly a Vrabel point of view. Now, this is up, and available for paid subscribers to look at. No, interaction, and the only free glimpse is just above. If you’ haven’t subscribed please do so! Everything I am doing is stage one of my draft coverage. Beta testing. So, subscribe now, so you’re in the know for next year.

If you’re a paid subscriber stick around for the link, but for you freeloaders this is the end of the road for you! Hope you all have a fun, safe, and happy draft night!