Everyone's Happy: Kevin Byard
Get 20% off forever by clicking the button below.
UPDATE: I have decided that I will be re-releasing this article as free for a limited time! Make sure that if you want more insight into trends about the Titans in advance of when stuff actually goes down, click the subscribe button above.
This article was originally written and published: 2/28/23
On Thursday’s A Football Show, we talked about two players no one is talking about as players that the Tennessee Titans could potentially mess around with their contracts: Kevin Byard and Denico Autry. I took it one step further after the show, going out on Twitter to propose the idea behind mentioning Byard.
I know this may shock you, but these tweets weren’t met with many rational replies. People trying to twist their mind into a pretzel that the cap hits aren’t bad. A lot of people yell typing that I’m an idiot for wanting to cut Byard. You know the usual lack of reading comprehension that comes with the territory.
There were a few replies that will be jumping off points for a few of the topics today, but one of the main questions is: well, what do the Titans do with this contract? It wasn’t a question I could really answer at the time, because I wasn’t at a computer with my research readily available, but now I am.
For this article you’re going to need to see how Byard’s contract is currently constructed. He has two years left on his deal and an addition two void years on the back end. Remember, on Friday I talked how void years work. So, make sure to use that as a guide just in case you get confused.
How Did We Get Here?
These cap hits are really massive. This is not the fault of Kevin Byard at all. He was given a really great contract at the beginning, and much like Ryan Tannehill’s contract journey, it became a weird target of Jon Robinson’s to restructure over and over.
In 2020, the Titans converted $7.69 million of 2020 salary into bonus, clearing $6.152 million of cap space. Not too bad of an idea, but the problem lies that they did it again in 2022. Where in March they converted $10.965M of 2022 salary into bonus, adding two void years, freeing up $8.772M of cap space with Tennessee.
Byard’s contract had to be restructured because Robinson spent the rest of the Titans money unwisely. Like I said, not Byard’s fault. However, the Titans have fired Robinson and now Ran Carthon is left holding the bag. Decisions have to be made.
Is Kevin Byard Worth It?
Is Kevin Byard worth these cap hits under normal circumstances? I’d lean probably. I am not sold that safety needs to be a highy paid position in general, but in other situations, I probably would just let the current contract ride out. However, the Titans aren’t in a current situation.
Like I said above, Robinson has put this team in a tenuous cap situation. In doing so, the Titans need all the money they can get to fix the roster, while remaining competitive. This is a contract, that the Titans shouldn’t keep “as-is”, and thus I deem it two things: a bad contract, and not worth it.
This is not to say Byard isn’t important to the team in various ways. He is. However, if you were to grade out his play over the last three seasons it would look close to this:
2020: D-
2021: A
2022: B-
However, you have to be objective. This is where I think some Titans fans in my mentions fail, they’re not objective. They see “The Mayor” and a kid from Murfreesboro and think his shit don’t stank. And I did say stank on purpose, because I am listening to Roses currently.
The thing about Byard is that he does play a position that ages very well. I looked at data provided from Pro Football Reference to gather the proper information.
I looked at safeties in two age brackets from 2010-2022. Going further back just seemed a little fruitless. The way game is played defensively has changed a lot over the years. I looked at safeties that were active at least 39 games during that time frame and were 20-29 years old and 30-39 years old.
The data supports the notion that the safety position ages very well. The average value of a safety player from 20-29 years old was 26.5. The average value for 30-39 years old was 25.5. Now there aren’t a lot of 30+ years old safeties, but I look at Byard’s career and see someone who could duplicate what Harrison Smith has been able to provide the Vikings.
So, is he technically overpaid in terms of cash, and cap hits? No. Is he overpaid in terms of cash and cap hits for the Titans? Yes.
Not his fault. However, if you’re the sentimental type, but also the fiscally responsible type, I do have solutions.
Restructuring vs Extending
There are two ways to make the Titans happy, but there is only way to make everyone happy. Let’s talk about restructuring Byard’s contract for a third time first.
I am not a fan of restructuring Byard’s currently contract, because it only helps the short-term and leaves a less than desirable situation from 2024 and beyond. A restructure is just taking base salaries of the current year, turning it into a signing bonus, and spreading out. Here is how it would look with Byard’s contract.
It looks great for 2023. You’re saving roughly $9 million, but the problem is next year’s cap hit goes up, and you have nothing settled beyond 2024. Those void years in 2025 and 2026 would accelerate into 2025 if the Titans didn’t extend or re-sign Byard. Making the dead cap hit of $10.6 million happen all in 2025.
It’s not all bad though. The cap keeps going up, and specifically in 2024 the Titans are projected to have $120 million+ in cap space. So, technically they could do a restructure, eat that gigantic cap hit, and not really sweat it. the problem is there is no security involved for either the Titans or Byard.
Ultimately, with that cap space being gigantic, the Titans could cut Byard after 2023, and save $3.5 million and carry a dead cap hit of $17.4 million, but what good is that for anybody involved? So, that's why I don’t think a restructure is likely. I think an extension is.
My number one priority is to keep Byard here and happy to at least the age of 33. That’s is typically when play starts to decline. So, my idea is to take $22.435 million of his base salaries in 2023/2024 and turn them into a signing bonus. He will be paid that $22.435 million up front. That’s not all though, I am going to take is 2023-2026 base salaries and make them fully guaranteed. $45.2 million fully guaranteed in total.
Now, the dead cap number is higher than that, because you have to take the $13.632 million of the previous dead caps dead money and roll it into this.
Doesn’t this make sense? This makes everyone happy. Byard gets paid a crap ton up front and is guaranteed to have a home here for four years, and if he choose to retire, or the Titans extend him, they’re out from under all the money created by Robinson’s restructure fiasco.
However, there is a possibility that Carthon is like, screw it, and cuts or trades him.
Cutting/Trading Kevin Byard
This is a possible scenario, but not a probable one. This, to me, has like a 5% chance of coming to fruition, just because Byard is the kind of player you keep, but also it would go against what the Titans brass has said all offseason.
The message has been this is a retooling, not a rebuilding. You keep Byard if this is just a retooling. You would only cut or trade him if you’re waving the white flag on 2023, which I know the Titans aren’t. however, where does that leave the Byard contract if he were to be traded or released?
I don’t find this to be a probable scenario, because unless you’re getting a high draft pick, you’re not going to trade him before June 1st. The flip side of that is, though, is that you could release him with a post-June 1st designation and let him seek out job opportunities, and when June comes around you get $14.1 million in cap space.
You could come to terms on a trade in the same scenario, Post-June 1st and gain $14.1 million, but the draft picks gained would be in 2024. Again, you have to ask yourself, does that benefit the Titans? Not really in terms of building a roster.
This would be a lose/lose situation for team supposedly wanting to contend. If either Byard is traded or released, this team has decided to lie to us for the last few months. It’s possible, just not probable.
Conclusion
Is it not logical to think the Titans try to come up with a way that Byard is here long-term while also getting him paid, and the cap hit down? It’s what any sane, logical person would do.
I, personally, want Byard here on an extension. It makes sense for both sides and keeps everyone happy. Everything else I would be very neutral on any other scenario. I’d understand it, but also, be like “blah” because of a missed opportunity.
If I were to put percentages on what I think happens with Byard’s contract it would look something like this:
Renegotiate as an Extension: 51%
Keep it As Is: 29%
Restructure: 15%
Trade/Cut: 5%
Don’t forget that if you’re not a paid subscriber, that you won’t have access coming up to the articles I put out Monday-Friday! So, click below to get started today!
You can also share Stacking The Inbox to anyone you may think will enjoy this comment! sharing is caring!