DeAndre Hopkins & Stacked Boxes for Derrick Henry

Will DeAndre Hopkins actually help Derrick Henry see less stacked boxes in 2023? Let's take a look at the data from 2019-2022.

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A lot has been made about the impact of DeAndre Hopkins on this Titans offense from production at wide receiver and depth standpoint. Some have even gone as far as to suggest that this signing will help the defensive backs. I want to focus on the idea that adding Hopkins will help Derrick Henry see fewer stacked boxes.

Like many of you, I found myself thinking the same thing. A veteran wide receiver will surely help Henry see fewer stacked boxes weekly. In theory, it should. I wanted to dive into the data to see how much his presence would help the King.

Providing the Context

I used the information provided at Sports Info Solutions. I am not paying their excessive amount, but they offer a 7-day free trial that I encourage everyone interested in data from sports to use.

First, I had to decide how to define a “stacked box.” There are a lot of variations on how to use the term depending on how someone wants to show the data. Some define it as having more defenders in the box than blockers on offense. I fall into the majority in that I define a stacked box as having 8+ defenders in the box. I am only looking at running plays as well. Keep it simple.

So, why 8? The typical defensive fronts are 4-3 or 3-4 fronts. That is seven players for those who may not math on a Monday. So, adding an extra person in the box would mean 8.

I kept it general when looking at the data. I took Henry’s rushing attempts with 8 or more defenders in the box. I divided it by the total rushing attempts for the season. That is not all I did. I mean, the whole purpose of this is to find how the presence of certain wide receivers affected the number of defenders in the box.

To do that, I look at each individual season of Henry from 2019-2022. He, of course, had wide receivers ranging from A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Julio Jones, and Treylon Burks during that time. So, I looked at a few variations of those wide receivers being available for the game or not being available to see how defenses changed things.

I had to do availability because there was no way to drive down to see whether a specific player was actually on the field. So, I kept in mind snap % when including games. For example, I excluded the Burks/Philly game from his data set because that wouldn’t be fair, considering he left the game relatively early.

I will break these down by year, and I will work backward from 2022 to 2019.

2022 Stacked Boxes: The Treylon Burks Effect